Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
StoneX VP of Fertilizer Josh Linville analyzes the fertilizer market’s sharp reaction to Middle East conflict and the ongoing volatility facing global supply chains.
The fertilizer market faced significant disruption after the U.S. joined Israel in striking Iran. “Israel struck Iran. Iran, of course, retaliates. The US gets into the middle of it. And this thing spiraled out of control very, very quickly”. These events led to widespread concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for fertilizer exports.
Following the strikes, both Iran and Egypt halted production. Linville notes, “We have seen Iranian production shut off. They shut down their gas fields as a precautionary measure. That means their nitrogen production goes offline. Israel did the same to their gas field. So they're not a nitrogen manufacturer, but Egypt relies a lot on them. They're the fourth largest exporter in the world. They had to shut down their production. So we lost numbers three and four for global exporters and very quickly because of these strikes” . Global urea prices rose between 20 and 40 percent in days.
The surge in fertilizer prices has hit farmers especially hard. “The thing everybody's yelling about is nitrogen prices are going sky high. My grain prices are actually going down. And for today going on, we are comparing our nitrogen prices against the December 26th corn price. You look at that value, which closed yesterday at 462. That created a ratio of 98 for this time of year. We've seen higher ratios, but it's been in other parts of the year for this time of year. We have never seen it that high”.
News of a ceasefire eased prices, but fundamental supply issues remain. “I do think that we will see values come off from these highs that we've said here in the last couple of days… However, we also have to understand the fact that we've lost production. We have lost several weeks of production in Iran. We have lost several weeks of production in Egypt. This is on top of a lack of exports from places like China. Production issues in Europe. So unfortunately, while yes, we think the price is going to come down from the highs, I also don't believe it's going to come down to the lows we had previously expected”. Linville suggests that the global fertilizer market will remain tight, with price volatility likely to continue.
The Farmer Fertilizer Focus Plan will lift the veil on market trends, factors to watch for, and unique perspectives to consider for your operation, helping you make more informed, financially beneficial decisions. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
Access NowSee our financial videos hub
---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Afternoon Market Review Includes - The cattle industry enters a critical year, with markets facing seasonal pressures, climate impacts, and the echoes of historical trends.
Global fertilizer markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to logistics rather than demand alone. As geopolitical tensions disrupt key shipping corridors, transportation security and raw material availability are emerging as the primary forces shaping fertilizer prices.
Fertilizer markets are stabilizing after recent supply shocks, but nitrogen, phosphate and potash are no longer moving in sync. The divide matters for buyers because affordability, availability and risk now depend on which nutrient they need most.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
