Corn and Soybean Stocks Rise, But China and Brazil Shift the Balance
Key Takeaways
- Domestic corn and soybean stocks expected to grow – but weather and China could shift the balance
- Biofuels offer strong demand tailwinds amid uncertain exports
- Tariff risks and Fed uncertainty add volatility across commodity markets
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, presented latest Market Outlook with a clear message: supply may be rising, but risks abound. Drawing on the USDA’s June 30 acreage report and broader macroeconomic signals, Suderman outlined pressures that will shape grain markets in the weeks and months ahead – from weather volatility to global trade friction.
U.S. Balance Sheets Show Expansion – For Now
Suderman noted that corn and soybean stocks are building on the back of strong acreage and early-season yield potential. USDA left yield forecasts unchanged at 181 bu/acre for corn and 52.5 bu/acre for soybeans, aligning with StoneX's expectations. However, weather in August will be decisive. A warm, dry month could reduce seed size and pull yields lower. Alternatively, a mild, moist one could lift them. Suderman cautioned that the models currently imply high yields, but early signs of pollination issues could challenge that outlook.
StoneX’s Corn Yield Model Estimates
Source: USDA, StoneX calculations
Global Trade and Tariffs Cloud Export Outlook
While U.S. ethanol and grain exports have remained strong, Suderman flagged softening demand from key buyers. Brazil's record corn crop – possibly reaching 142 MMT – will weigh on U.S. exportability. China, which typically books new-crop soybeans in July, had not committed to any U.S. volumes by the time of the webinar. Ongoing tariff battles are disrupting flows and creating uncertainty, especially with a 50% tariff set to hit Brazilian beef and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals still in discussion.
USDA vs. StoneX corn Supply and Demand Scenarios Table
Source: USDA, StoneX
Biofuel Policies Could Bolster Domestic Demand
Suderman pointed to biofuels as a bright spot. The EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), combined with new tax provisions under Section 45Z, could significantly boost soybean oil and ethanol demand. Still, much hinges on how the EPA handles refinery exemptions and whether policy momentum continues into the 2026 cycle.
Chart of US Soybean Oil Consumption by Category
Source: USDA, Arlan Suderman
To watch the fully June webinar coverage on demand, click here.
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–– Written by: Andy Catsimanes
–– Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
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