Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 22

Mike Castle
Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Add us as preferred source on Google

October 22 – Stock futures are pointing to a decidedly lower open to start the day, with the tech heavy Nasdaq showing the largest losses despite overall positive earnings results after yesterday’s close, which we’ll dive into in more depth below, while the VIX surges nearly 8% higher to start the day near 18. The dollar is modestly higher this morning after pushing lower in the overnight session, hanging near 101.78 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are notably lower to start the day, with 2-year yields down 10-basis points to 4.723%, 10-year yields are back below 5.03%, and 30-year yields sit at 5.344%. Crude oil is pushing notably higher this morning amid escalations in the Middle East which we’ll also dive into below, as nearby WTI sits nearly 2.0% higher at the time of writing to trade near $99.65 and nearby Brent sits 3.0% higher to trade at a fresh five-month high above the $112 mark. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day, with corn/soybeans seeing small gains and the wheat complex small losses.

Big tech earnings released after yesterday’s close were broadly impressive, but overnight weakness in Nasdaq futures point to increasing investor concern surrounding the scale of AI-related capital spending in the context of rising financing costs. Starting with Meta Platforms, headline revenue figures surpassed expectations, with Q3 revenue up ~26% year-on-year to $64.6B, Q4 guidance came in higher than expected, advertising impressions and prices both showed unexpectedly strong improvement, a reverse in course from a weaker print from Netflix earlier this week—all very impressive on the surface. However, the company’s massive AI capex is under scrutiny, with Meta projecting $135B - $145B in AI infrastructure spending, while their Q3 cash flow came in at -$2.1B due to these lofty spending levels. Tesla earnings also showed a headline earnings beat, but investor focus continues to center on the company’s autonomy, robotics, and AI rather than traditional automaking, again bringing them under scrutiny when fears of lofty forward capex targets amid rising financing costs come into focus. Looking at some of the suppliers of the ongoing tech boom, IBM, Texas Instruments, and Lam Research all delivered solid earnings beats, providing further evidence that enterprise IT, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure demand and spending remain healthy. Again, all of these results appear broadly constructive for the tech sector, but the jitters regarding the sustainability of this strength are clearly weighing on sentiment. The market will get plenty more results to parse through next week, with Google parent Alphabet and Microsoft both due to report on Wednesday (10/28), followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday (10/29).

Rhetoric regarding prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine dominated headlines yesterday, but actions on the ground suggest no material change thus far. Russia carried out heavy strikes on Kyiv and the surrounding region after yesterday’s Witkoff/Putin meeting, launching at least 21 ballistic missiles in three separate waves, with Ukraine responding with a wave of drones sent into Russia, including a large swarm targeting the Moscow area. Commodity movement via the Black Sea remains effectively cut off and the details of Russian officials’ statements continued to point to a lack of optimism for breakthroughs, but the headline of willingness to restart trilateral talks, coupled with increasing U.S. pressure on the Ukrainian side appear to be enough to spook at least some remaining managed money length out of the wheat market. At this stage, the development looks more like agreement to continue discussions than evidence that underlying differences over territory, security guarantees, or the terms of a ceasefire have materially narrowed. The two sides being willing to resume trilateral talks is a clear improvement from the previous months of unending escalation, but it’s worth keeping in mind that we’ve heard versions of this repeatedly over the last few years. Russia has consistently maintained its openness to negotiations, but their maximalist demands typically prevent much actual progress from occurring, while Ukraine has already publicly indicated its willingness to freeze the conflict along current frontlines before, again without much actual progress occurring. While it’s good to hear the words, at the end of the day markets will need to see the actions that lead to a material improvement in commodity flow before getting too excited.

Repeated Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia are presenting a clear enough threat that the U.S. State Department yesterday ordered the departure on non-emergency government personnel and their family members from Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Aramco has reportedly evacuated personnel from its headquarters, instructing them to work remotely for an unspecified period of time. Two people were killed yesterday in a Houthi attack on the King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, in the nation’s far east near Bahrain. From a commodity market perspective, the geography of the strike was the most notable aspect, given its proximity to the primary concentration of Saudi energy production, while officials noted intercepting an additional five Houthi drones in the east yesterday as well. None of these strikes have impacted operations, but the perceived heightening of the regional threat level is enough to send crude oil prices higher to start the day, with headlines of potential escalation between the U.S./Israel and Iran keeping traders’ eyes on the region.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell to a 13-week low of 194k in the week ended October 17, well below the average analyst estimate of 200k and below even the lowest estimate of 195k, continuing to point to a more resilient than expected U.S. labor market. This dragged the four-week moving average for initial claims to 197.75k, down 1k week-on-week and representing the lowest level seen in four years. It wasn’t all rosy, however, with continuing claims ticking higher to 1.728M, above the expected 1.720M and marking a six-week high. The week prior was revised 7k lower to now sit at 1.703M, taking out some of the sting, but this is something worth keeping an eye on in the weeks ahead. Also keep in mind from an equities perspective, we’re still in “good news is bad news” territory as the strength of the labor market clears the Fed’s path toward hiking rates moving forward. With that said, if we see a continued rise in continuing jobless claims, or any other signs of a potentially deteriorating labor market, it could be seen as taking some of the most hawkish expectations off the table.

image 139420

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 22

October 22 – Stock futures are pointing to a decidedly lower open to start the day, with the tech heavy Nasdaq showing the largest losses despite overall positive earnings results after yesterday’s close, which we’ll dive into in more depth below, while the VIX surges nearly 8% higher to start the day near 18. The dollar is modestly higher this morning after pushing lower in the overnight session, hanging near 101.78 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are notably lower to start the day, with 2-year yields down 10-basis points to 4.723%, 10-year yields are back below 5.03%, and 30-year yields sit at 5.344%. Crude oil is pushing notably higher this morning amid escalations in the Middle East which we’ll also dive into below, as nearby WTI sits nearly 2.0% higher at the time of writing to trade near $99.65 and nearby Brent sits 3.0% higher to trade at a fresh five-month high above the $112 mark. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day, with corn/soybeans seeing small gains and the wheat complex small losses.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 21

October 21 – Stock futures are pointing to a strong open, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq following yesterday’s SpaceX earnings which we’ll touch on in more depth below. The VIX is off slightly to start the day, hovering near 17.1 at the time of writing, its lowest level so far this week. The dollar is sitting just below unchanged, near 101.71, after touching a three-week low just above 101.5 yesterday. Treasury yields are lower to start the day, with 2-year yields trading at 4.774%, 10-year yields at 5.098%, and 30-year yields at 5.409%. Crude oil is modestly lower, with nearby WTI and Brent both down 0.8% to trade near $97.40 and $107.90, respectively. The ags are widely in the red, with the sharpest losses seen in the wheat complex amid this week’s fresh push for diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Bigger U.S. Soybean Crop Fails to Loosen a Tightening Balance Sheet

A bigger U.S. soybean harvest is meeting crush, biofuel and Chinese demand strong enough to shrink ending stocks. That balance explains why harvest pressure trims soybean rallies but leaves a floor under the market.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: Your access to global markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.