Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales, breaks down how weather, trade disputes and global supply dynamics are reshaping agricultural markets.
Bertrand Oesterle noted that U.S. corn yields have likely peaked after the August report, with weather and rust disease prompting downward revisions. Soybeans face similar pressure, with crop conditions weakening and export demand lagging. “The window of opportunity is basically getting shorter and shorter”.
Talks between the U.S. and China ended without progress, leaving soybean exports stalled. Instead, China is releasing reserves, raising doubts about near-term demand. This is significant given that the bulk of U.S. soybean exports to China traditionally occur between September and January.
Rapeseed and canola supplies are mixed, with Ukraine introducing a 10% export tax, Europe stabilising, and Canada and Australia reporting steady output. Wheat has come under heavy pressure, with French ending stocks at 20-year highs and Russian exports rising. Paris wheat futures are testing contract lows, adding stress for European farmers.
Bertrand Oesterle flagged key risks ahead including the upcoming USDA report, the winding down of harvest pressure, and the potential impact of La Niña weather patterns. Currency moves also matter, with a weaker dollar offering some support but euro strength challenging European exporters.
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Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
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