Base metals are regaining strength as China’s peak building months spark renewed demand and optimism in global markets. With a weaker US dollar improving trade competitiveness, and policy signals from Beijing pointing toward long-term infrastructure support, the stage is set for a broader recovery in industrial metals. Traders are now watching how these seasonal tailwinds align with macro shifts into 2026.
Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX, discusses how China’s construction season and policy outlook are shaping demand across base metals.
Key Themes
Seasonal demand in China’s construction sector boosts metal consumption.
Weaker US dollar and expected rate cuts strengthen global metal sentiment.
Policy guidance from China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan supports infrastructure growth.
As China enters its “Golden September and Silver October” [21:15] construction period, activity in housing and infrastructure projects has increased metal consumption. Natalie Scott-Gray explains that this seasonality typically lifts demand for nickel, copper, aluminum and zinc [21:15], helping offset earlier market softness. The uptick reinforces expectations of a cyclical recovery across industrial metals, coinciding with stronger building and manufacturing activity through year-end.
Policy and Currency Tailwinds Shape 2026
Looking ahead, Natalie notes that “2026 will mark the start of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan” [21:15], with markets anticipating further policy support for growth. A weaker dollar, near its lowest level since 2022, continues to aid export competitiveness and investor confidence. Expectations of future US rate cuts are already warming sentiment, suggesting a more favorable macro backdrop for base metals. Together, these drivers point toward sustained demand into China’s next policy cycle.
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