Daily Coffee Report 10/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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Argentina's Investors Turn to Duration but Still Wait on the 2027 Vote
Argentina's investors are trading daily arbitrage for duration and company fundamentals as peso volatility fades. Exchange controls and the 2027 election still decide how far that shift can go.
Editorial Team
- Interest Rates
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 12
October 12 – Geopolitics are the feature to start the week, with major weekend escalations in the Middle East and a surprising U.S. / Russian agreement throwing a wrench into Black Sea diplomacy. Stock futures are pointing to a quietly mixed open as traders attempt to digest the weekend developments, as well as prepare for this week’s September inflation data, and look ahead to the upcoming third quarter earnings season. The VIX is elevated to start the week but remains near the low-end of 2026’s range, hovering near 15.5 at the time of writing. The dollar continues to march higher, though it does appear to be running into resistance every time it approaches the 102.5 level, currently trading near 102.42 this morning. U.S. bond markets are closed today in observance of Columbus Day, though Treasury futures will be trading normally. Crude oil is rising following the weekend escalations, with nearby WTI up 2.15% at the time of writing to trade near $93.65, while nearby Brent is up 1.9% to trade near $106.70, a nearly four-week high. The ags are largely mixed to start the week, with the market finding its footing following Friday’s surprises in USDA’s October WASDE report.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Open a Second Front in Oil Supply Risk
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure are adding a second source of Middle East oil supply risk, alongside shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. New Russian diesel volumes ease some tightness in refined products but do nothing to calm the Gulf.
Fiona Cincotta
- Energy
China's Property Slump Caps Base Metals Demand Despite Policy Support
China's stimulus is steadying base metals demand without restarting it, as property sales and fixed asset investment keep falling. Natalie Scott-Gray explains why policy support sets a floor for metals, and why weaker Chinese manufacturing remains a downside risk for copper.
Natalie Scott-Gray
- Base Metals
Treasury Yields Are Giving Investors a Safer Exit From the AI Trade
Long-dated Treasury yields are giving investors a lower-risk alternative to stretched AI stocks just as Nvidia stalls at record highs. Higher yields reflect growth and inflation, yet they also squeeze debt-dependent AI hyperscalers and pull capital away from crowded tech.
James Stanley
- Fixed Income
Canceled IPOs Put Investment Banking Revenue at the Heart of Earnings
Big U.S. banks report third-quarter results with their sector index well below recent highs and higher Treasury yields already pushing IPOs off the calendar. Investment banking revenue is where the yield story meets bank profits, against earnings expectations that remain high.
Fiona Cincotta
- Equities
Gold Breakout Gains Momentum as RSI and MACD Turn Bullish Together
Gold's break from its downtrend now has momentum indicators behind it, with RSI and MACD both turning bullish. The bigger test is whether the U.S. dollar and Treasury note futures keep turning in gold's favor.
David Scutt
- Precious Metals
Dow Jones Nears March Oversold Levels as Yields Weigh on Cyclicals
Rising Treasury yields are hitting the Dow Jones and cyclical sectors much harder than AI and tech stocks. With the Dow Jones nearing oversold levels and the Nasdaq still overbought, U.S. indices now show a split that points to a possible sector rotation.
Razan Hilal
- Fixed Income
U.S. Corn Acres Shrink as Fertilizer Costs Push Growers to Soybeans
Low corn prices and rising fertilizer costs pushed U.S. growers toward soybeans, shrinking the U.S. corn crop after a record season. The smaller crop arrives as other exporters face constraints, leaving global buyers more dependent on U.S. corn.
Editorial Team
- Grains & Oilseeds
FX Weekly Overview (Brazil Issue)
Dollar expected to reflect optimism with the electoral race in Brazil and US inflation data
Leonel Mattos
- Currencies
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