Larissa Alvarez, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, discusses the potential consequences of Brazil’s first recorded avian flu case for both global exports and the domestic poultry market.
Key Takeaways
Brazil’s seasonal chicken export cycle is at risk due to avian flu-related trade disruptions
Domestic chicken prices are falling amid redirected supply and stable internal demand
U.S. food inflation may spill over into Brazil through global poultry trade dynamics
Brazil’s Poultry Export Dominance
Brazil has led the world in chicken meat exports since 2003, accounting for 36% of global shipments in 2024. With 4.89 million tons exported, the country’s dominance is anchored in the southern states, particularly Paraná, which handles more than twice the volume of the next state, Santa Catarina.
The Impact of Avian Flu
The first confirmed case of avian flu in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, threatens to disrupt Brazil’s well-established seasonal trade flow. According to Alvarez, “This pattern is under pressure due to the recent export suspension”. Export activity has already dropped in late May, with overall monthly figures falling 14% year-over-year.
Domestic Market Dynamics
Brazil’s internal market absorbs 63% of production. Alvarez emphasized the stabilizing role of this demand: “There is no sign of a supply shortage. In fact, prices are falling”. Export restrictions redirect supply inward, placing downward pressure on prices and ensuring consistent consumer access.
The broader concern is whether Brazil will import inflation from the U.S., where prolonged avian flu outbreaks since 2022 have triggered record egg inflation and supply issues. “Part of the U.S. price pressure is being implemented into the Brazilian market”, Alvarez said, although the ultimate impact will depend on Brazil’s containment and recovery response in the coming months.
What If the Strait Closes?
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Larissa Alvarez, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Meats & Livestock
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