Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales, explains how salmon futures have climbed to fresh highs after a summer dip, driven by supply shifts, logistical issues, and changing global demand.
Key Takeaways
Supply disruptions and biomass declines lift prices
Logistical setbacks in Norway delay salmon exports
China offsets weaker US demand for Norwegian salmon
Salmon Supply Losses Tighten Market Outlook
Oesterle outlined how supply setbacks across Canada, Alaska, Scotland, and Norway created bullish momentum in salmon markets. He pointed to Canada’s report of 23% mortality at three major farma, equal to 400,000 salmon lost, as a shock that unsettled buyers. In Norway, the Directorate of Fisheries reported biomass down 2.4% and fish counts down 6.7% compared with last year. “The report showed fewer fish in the water and that confirmed the view that prices have got to go up”, Oesterle explained.
Norwegian Salmon Routes Face Export Delays
Norwegian salmon exports faced additional strain from a landslide and floods affecting shipments. Oesterle described how a landslide in central Norway and rail disruptions to Sweden caused backlogs that stretched into northern Norway. These interruptions reduced the flow of salmon to export markets, adding to upward price momentum. Although temporary, the issues reminded markets how fragile transport routes can amplify supply concerns.
Chinese Buying Lifts Salmon Export Volumes
Frozen salmon demand in Europe, smoked salmon recovery in Japan, and strong fresh demand from the US and China all contributed to market shifts. Oesterle highlighted that “Norwegian exports to China are 38% up over the past year”, with China now the sixth largest market. Increased Chinese buying offset weaker US demand linked to tariffs. Still, Oesterle cautioned that higher prices are starting to slow consumption in Asia and parts of Europe.
Salmon Farms Report Higher Survival Rates
Oesterle pointed to an expected regulatory tightening in Norway, reduced antibiotic use in Scotland, and improved sea lice management in Ireland as positive signs for consumers. He noted that Scottish farms reported a record survival rate of 99.12% in early 2025, the best since records began in 2018. Norwegian mortality rates also improved, falling 4% year on year. Together, these measures show steady progress toward sustainability and greater confidence in aquaculture quality.
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---- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
Meats & Livestock
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