Precious Metals Talking points 061826: Fed; change at the helm and key points from first meeting
Politics, economic, geopolitics and investor sentiment
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
Gain your edge with StoneX: Market intel, insights and education
Bookmark this page in your browser to ensure you never miss new StoneX content.
Market Intelligence
Gain the edge you need to succeed in the commodity and financial markets: our Market Intelligence team delivers cutting-edge research and analysis you won't find anywhere else.
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
European Equities Rise as Fed and ECB Paths Diverge
European equities are benefiting from a rare combination of supportive factors as global investors reassess the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. In June 2026, falling oil prices and a less restrictive European policy outlook are helping continental markets outperform despite renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. The divergence highlights how regional policy expectations can reshape capital flows and valuation trends across global equity markets.
Editorial Team
- Equities
Dollar Strength Builds on a New Rate Reality
Interest rate expectations are becoming a more powerful driver of currency markets than the policy decisions themselves. As investors rapidly reprice the path of U.S. interest rates, the U.S. dollar is gaining momentum while currencies linked to more cautious central banks face growing pressure.
Editorial Team
- Currencies
Safe Havens in a Risk-On World: Why Market Safety Still Matters
In this week's episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter examine what makes an asset a “safe haven,” why the catalyst for market stress matters, and how different assets may respond as risk aversion intensifies.
Matt Weller
- Equities
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 18
June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Federal Reserve Credibility Faces a New Inflation Test
The Federal Reserve is placing inflation credibility back at the center of monetary policy just as markets begin questioning how restrictive policy may need to become. A renewed focus on price stability under Chair Kevin Warsh is reshaping expectations for interest rates, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.
Editorial Team
- Interest Rates
Dairy Genetics Are Rewriting the Growth Playbook
Improving dairy productivity is becoming more important than expanding herd size across Europe. Advances in genetics and breeding technology are allowing farmers to increase milk production while operating within growing regulatory and land constraints.
Editorial Team
- Dairy
Shipping Routes Now Drive Fertilizer Markets More Than Diplomacy
As global fertilizer markets adjust to easing tensions in the Middle East, traders are shifting their focus away from political headlines and toward the physical movement of goods. Shipping access through critical trade corridors is once again becoming the dominant factor shaping supply expectations and fertilizer pricing. In June 2026, improving vessel traffic has coincided with falling urea prices and renewed confidence among exporters. The result is a rapid repricing of fertilizer markets as participants reassess supply availability rather than geopolitical risk.
Editorial Team
- Fertilizers
Gold Markets Reprice as Middle East Risk Premium Fades
The fading geopolitical risk premium is becoming a major force in the gold market as traders reassess safe-haven demand following signs of de-escalation between the United States and Iran. While the longer-term outlook for precious metals remains constructive, the removal of crisis pricing is creating short-term uncertainty and increasing the importance of technical support levels.
Editorial Team
- Precious Metals
Daily Coffee Report 6/17/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Rising U.S. Crude Exports Push WTI Toward Full Global Benchmark Status
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract is undergoing a structural transformation, with rising U.S. export volumes shifting its role from domestic benchmark to global price signal. As storage at Cushing, Oklahoma tightens toward operational minimums, the connection between American crude flows and international oil markets has never been more direct.
Editorial Team
- Energy
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
European Crop Recovery Masks Growing Weather Risks Ahead
Improving crop conditions across Europe have eased immediate supply concerns, but weather remains a critical variable for grain markets. Recent rains have supported crop recovery, yet shrinking maize acreage and renewed heat risks suggest production forecasts may still face meaningful challenges in the months ahead.
Editorial Team
- Grains & Oilseeds
Oil's Drop Back Into the $70s Reshapes the Macro Setup for USD/CAD
WTI crude's return to the low $70s has introduced a fresh variable into the USD/CAD macro story, connecting oil prices directly to the Federal Reserve rate hike expectations driving dollar strength. With Kevin Warsh delivering his first press conference as Fed Chair, a softer signal on inflation could stall the pair's six-week advance at a critical resistance level.
Editorial Team
- Currencies
Sterling Gains Face a New Test as Rate Bets Fade
The pound is entering a more challenging environment as cooling inflation reduces expectations for further Bank of England tightening. With growth slowing and energy prices falling, sterling may need new drivers to sustain its recent strength.
Editorial Team
- Currencies
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 17
June 17 – Stock futures consolidated overnight in relatively quiet trade. It’s Fed Day on Wall Street as war headlines begin to calm, with investors focused on this afternoon’s statement and press conference from the Federal Reserve after incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh chairs his first set of policy meetings. The VIX is still trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.06%, as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten amid lingering inflation worries. WTI crude oil dropped to a fresh 15-week low this morning at $74.59 per barrel, before bouncing to trade near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly firmer overnight, with wheat prices leading the way higher amid adverse European weather.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Markets May Be Pricing Too Much Federal Reserve Tightening
The U.S. dollar's recent direction has become increasingly dependent on whether the Federal Reserve validates aggressive market expectations for future policy. While investors have steadily reduced expectations for rate cuts, labor market trends and productivity developments suggest the economic backdrop may not justify a significantly more hawkish stance.
Editorial Team
- Currencies
Euro Gains Ground as Safe Haven Flows Begin to Unwind
The Swiss franc's traditional safe-haven advantage may be weakening as geopolitical tensions ease and investors rotate back toward risk-sensitive assets. Falling oil prices and improving market sentiment are shifting currency market dynamics, creating conditions that could favor the euro against defensive counterparts.
Editorial Team
- Currencies
Crude Oil Drops as Hormuz Relief Rally Meets Hard Limits
WTI crude oil has fallen more than 7% in a week as markets price in a Strait of Hormuz reopening that physical supply chains have not yet confirmed. The gap between geopolitical optimism and the gradual reality of supply normalization is now shaping a critical technical test at the $74 price zone.
Editorial Team
- Energy
Daily Coffee Report 6/16/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 16
June 16 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a fresh record high today, remaining strong at midday, while other stocks pulled back a bit following yesterday's strength as investors assess the prospects for commodities flowing in the Strait of Hormuz, and as they wait for word from Kevin Warsh's Fed committee tomorrow. The VIX dropped below 16 early this afternoon, while the dollar index traded near 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43% as they probe to five-week lows, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.04%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $76 per barrel - less than $10 above the pre-war level - while Brent trades near $79 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector is trading mixed to firmer at midday, after a roller coaster of a morning.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
StoneX Natural Resource Summit 4.0: Copper’s Strategic Importance
Last week in New York, StoneX hosted its fourth annual Natural Resources Summit, alongside Copper Club Week. In the article below we discuss the outlook for copper in the year ahead, based on the key questions asked by market players over the course of the week.
Natalie Scott-Gray
- Base Metals
Videos
Discover dynamic insights with our curated video content. From expert interviews, breakdowns of global economics and timely market analysis, our videos unlock your ability to make informed decisions with clarity and confidence.
Whitepapers
Seeking a more comprehensive look at your topics of interest? Our market-expert driven whitepapers deliver greater financial analysis through extensive research and meticulous attention to detail.
Podcasts
Go deeper into the world of finance and trading with our ever-current StoneX podcasts. Our experts help inform your strategy with thought-provoking conversation that go beyond your typical news article.
Webinars
Access expert-led, on-demand webinars from StoneX analysts around the world. Stay informed with in-depth discussions on global markets, designed to support and strengthen your strategy.
Education
Take control of your cash flow and improve your balance sheet with StoneX's comprehensive education, tailored to meet your specific needs and goals in the commodities and financial markets.
Glossary
Our glossary of trading terms, investment topics and in-depth research is designed to give you a better understanding of the financial markets. Improve your knowledge and enhance your strategies with our glossary.
Thought leadership
Delve into expert financial analysis and opinion by industry insiders from across market sectors. StoneX thought leadership offers deep insights and actionable guidance designed to put you a step ahead of the competition.
Upcoming events
Basic Natural Gas Hedging Virtual Workshop
Webinars|North America|Language: English
June 16 - June 25, 2026
3:00-4:30 p.m. ET
We're thrilled to invite you to the Basic Natural Gas Hedging Virtual Workshop, running from June 16 to June 25, 2026 with six 90-minute sessions. This comprehensive event will cover everything from futures contracts and options to strategic hedging examples. Perfect for professionals eager to deepen their understanding of natural gas market dynamics and technical analysis.
SID Annual Conference
Third party events|North America|Language: English
June 18, 2026
Washington, D.C.
StoneX Payments is proud to sponsor the Society for International Development Annual Conference.
We look forward to engaging with the global development and NGO community on cross border payments.
Visit our booth to connect and share how secure, efficient payment solutions support critical missions worldwide.
Merchandising 101
StoneX events|North America|Language: English
June 23 - June 25, 2026
Whitestown, IN
Join us for this interactive program focused on managing and taking advantage of market volatility using proven price risk management strategies.
You’ll gain a solid foundation of grain merchandising, cash, futures, options, and OTC markets, and will leave with a better understanding of the following topics:
- Introduction to Cash, Futures, Options, and OTC market tools
- Basis, Spreads, Hedging and Hedge Management
- Delivery
- Market Technology
- Utilizing financial tools to develop cash contracts to enhance origination
- Customer Contracts
- Grain Accounting
World of Coffee, Brussels
Third party events|Europe|Language: English
June 25 - June 27, 2026
Brussels, Belgium
The StoneX Coffee team will be at World of Coffee Brussels to discuss how we help coffee businesses manage price risk, navigate volatility and make more informed decisions across the value chain, June 25-27.
Stop by Booth 11402 to explore how our market intelligence and CoffeeNetwork platform support smarter day-to-day pricing and purchasing decisions.
Global Dairy Market Outlook
Webinars||Language: English
June 29 - July 02, 2026
Time Varies Based on Session
Stay ahead of global dairy markets with StoneX’s upcoming virtual Global Dairy Market Outlook.
This one-hour webinar series delivers timely, region-by-region insight into the supply and demand forces shaping global dairy prices. Each session is tailored by language and time zone, giving you a clearer view of market direction and the potential pricing implications ahead.
Arlan Suderman’s Market Outlook
Webinars||Language: English
June 30, 2026
2:00 - 3:00 p.m. CT
The June 30 reports are often pivot points for market direction changes, and a lot has happened since farmers were surveyed regarding their planting intentions in March.
In this quarterly edition, Arlan will focus on:
- What the USDA’s June survey says about how a stronger biofuel program and Iran war–driven cost pressures have reshaped this year’s planting mix, and the fallout for balance sheets
- The March quarterly stocks report suggested that the USDA over-stated the size of last year’s corn crop and speculated that it continued to overstate this year’s feed usage. The Wil the June stocks numbers confirm or derail that speculation?
- The factors that could play a role this year in changing the direction of the markets, including an update on what the weather models are showing us for this year’s corn pollination.
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer.
This website is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.