By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Lithuania and Latvia are pushing to stop Russian grain moving through their Baltic ports, closing one of the few transit routes still working while the Black Sea corridor stays disrupted. Baltic grain transit matters because it has quietly absorbed volumes that could not move cleanly through southern routes, and shutting it narrows the map for anyone buying wheat. International buyers have already started sourcing elsewhere, with Libya confirming a purchase of 33,000 tonnes of French wheat. The result is a market where the physical routes are tightening faster than the headlines about peace talks suggest.
Bertrand Oesterle is Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX Financial Ltd in London, where he works with institutional clients on futures clearing and execution across global derivatives and listed markets. He tracks grains and oilseeds alongside the exchange access and risk management flows that commercial participants use when export routes shift.
Two Baltic states are now moving against Russian grain transit at the same time as the Black Sea corridor remains disrupted, which leaves fewer functioning routes than the export figures alone imply. Bertrand Oesterle describes the picture as one where "we know that the Black Sea is stuck", adding that Lithuania and Latvia are starting to say "we shouldn't let any Russian grain go through our Baltic ports". The volumes that would normally find a workaround have fewer places to go, and Russian wheat shipments over August and September have run at low levels. For commercial buyers the practical effect is not a headline number but a shorter list of origins that can actually load. That constraint stems from politics rather than from harvest size, which is why it can tighten quickly and without warning.
Libya confirmed a purchase of 33,000 tonnes of French wheat, a small trade that illustrates a larger reallocation away from Black Sea supply. According to Oesterle, international buyers are telling the market something about its own psychology, continuing a pattern of seeking alternatives rather than waiting for Black Sea routes to normalize. European Union wheat exports have caught up somewhat on last year's pace, and European maize exports are running ahead of the same point last season at 3.6 million tonnes against 2.6 million. In contrast, the European crop itself is under pressure, with French farmers reporting low maize yields as expected, described plainly as "it shows that it is not good". Buyers moving toward French and other European origins are therefore competing for a smaller pool than a straight substitution would suggest.
Pakistan came to the market with a 750,000 tonne wheat tender in the same week that Saudi Arabia's grain buyer cancelled a 585,000 tonne hard wheat tender, two decisions pointing in opposite directions. That split reflects a genuine disagreement about whether to secure coverage now or wait for a de-escalation that could ease prices, and Oesterle notes that some consumers believe the market is ready to wait. The rush side of the trade is more blunt, characterized by consumers who conclude that "whatever happens, we need some wheat". Notably, the same uncertainty is showing up in Euronext milling wheat volatility, which is running higher at this point in the season than it was in 2022 when the war began. As a result, tenders are now a sentiment indicator as much as a supply signal, and reading them tells a buyer what their peers fear rather than what the market has settled on.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only.
StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs.
This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity.
The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice.
Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced.
This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.
StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity.
StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate.
This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Lithuania and Latvia are moving to shut Russian grain out of their Baltic ports while the Black Sea corridor stays disrupted. The routes still open are narrowing, and international wheat buyers are already sourcing elsewhere.
September 9 – Nearby Brent crude oil futures have broken above $100 for the first time in over six weeks amid fresh escalations targeting energy assets in both the Middle East and Black Sea. A tit-for-tat cycle of strikes on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz has persisted in recent days, with CENTCOM reporting U.S. strikes having destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers yesterday, then Iran escalating overnight, claiming attacks on two U.S. naval vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf, though that has not yet been verified by the U.S. What stood out to me regarding yesterday’s strikes was the targeting of an Iranian oil tanker near the anchorage area of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. The proximity of this strike to Kharg Island could be interpreted as a deliberate warning: Washington is demonstrating its ability to hit Iran’s oil-export system at the doorstep of the country’s principal crude terminal while, for now, stopping short of targeting the infrastructure itself. At the same time, Ukraine carried out heavy strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk, the country’s top Black Sea port for commodity shipment. While confirmed details are still sparse, the Russian naval base in the area appears to have been the top target, with energy terminals damaged as well, but no damage to grain infrastructure has been reported at this time. On the other side, Russia continued their campaign of heavy strikes across Ukraine, including an ongoing focus on Black Sea port cities, with Mykolaiv reportedly suffering notable damage. The other notable target was the border crossing from Ukraine into Moldova at Starokozache, highlighting Russia’s new campaign targeting alternate routes for Ukrainian grain shipments amid the effective closure of the Black Sea. Both wars are increasingly becoming wars against commodity logistics, keeping support under the broader complex as traders await what comes next.
September 8 – Geopolitical escalation remains in focus to start the short week, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open and WTI crude oil prices posting a fresh three-month high amid a ramp-up in fighting in both the Middle East and Black Sea. The VIX is up notably from its 2026 low posted on Friday but remains relatively muted as it trades above the 15.4 level. The dollar is quietly lower to start the day, hovering around 98.84 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are also quietly lower to start the day, with the sharpest declines seen at the long-end of the curve; 2-year yields are trading at 4.37%, 10-year yields at 4.77%, and 30-year yields at 5.225%. Nearby WTI pushed to its highest level in exactly three months earlier in the session but has since pulled back to trade near $92.90, up ~1.8% on the day, while nearby Brent pushed to its highest level since July 24th earlier in the session but has pulled back to trade near $97.50 at the time of writing, up only ~0.4%. The ags are widely mixed, with the biggest strength being seen in the wheat complex after weekend talks failed to produce any major results, which we’ll dive into in more depth below.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
