Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Crypto markets often hinge on a few decisive price zones where trend, positioning and sentiment collide. Bitcoin is now pressing into one of those zones as it trades in a tight monthly opening range below a dense band of resistance. The market has already absorbed a steep decline from the highs and a sharp rebound from the lows, leaving traders wary of both complacency and overconfidence. With momentum fading and structure tightening, the next confirmed move away from this range could carry outsized importance for directional bias.
Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com and StoneX, uses these overlapping technical structures to frame where a genuine turning point in Bitcoin is most likely to emerge.
Bitcoin's current pattern shows how a market can look exhausted without yet confirming a reversal. Boutros underscores the backdrop by noting that "Momentum is at its lowest level seen since 2023, so we're a bit stretched on the momentum side of things.", which highlights how price can stall even as volatility compresses. That combination of softer momentum and tight price action makes the eventual break more informative than any single candle within the range. Traders who recognize this dynamic focus less on predicting direction and more on preparing for how to respond once the range finally resolves.
The technical roadmap around this turning point is built from a series of overlapping levels rather than a single line in the sand. Resistance in the 93,347 to 94,236 zone aligns with the yearly open, key retracement measures and the median line off the 2024 and 2025 highs, while support sits in stages near 86,291 to 85,930 and then down toward 84,000 and 83,712. On the daily chart, Boutros emphasizes that "We're still holding that really nice embedded descending channel formation off the October highs.", which helps traders visualize how rallies and pullbacks interact with those levels. By mapping potential breakdown targets and topside markers, his analysis turns an abstract turning point into a structured set of risks and opportunities.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a 14-day trial.
Sign up for a free trial today See our financial videos hub--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst, FOREX.com and StoneX
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Institutional investors pulled $424 million from Bitcoin in a single day, erasing a brief run of small inflows. Fiona Cincotta explains why flow data, Federal Reserve policy and the Clarity Act may matter more for Bitcoin's 2026 path than the price chart.
Bitcoin's long-term outlook depends on more than technical support levels and historical market cycles. Global liquidity conditions and central bank policy remain critical forces shaping demand for digital assets.
Bitcoin's latest decline may be following a familiar historical pattern rather than entering uncharted territory. Previous crypto bear markets suggest the current correction could still have further to run before a durable bottom emerges.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
