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Cocoa grindings came in at around 903,000 tons in the third quarter, roughly 14% higher than a year earlier, and food and confectionery companies now report that volumes are coming back. The chocolate demand recovery is real but gradual, built on consumers buying more product rather than on higher prices alone. Against 2024 volumes, cocoa grinding is close to flat, which marks a rebound from a weak base rather than a boom. Hot weather in Europe, early orders and rising company costs all shape how far chocolate demand can run from here.
Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst, tracks supply and demand balances in cocoa and coffee for the firm's South American research team in Campinas, Brazil. His coverage follows production flows and processing trends from West Africa to Brazil, along with the industrial demand shifts that move soft commodity prices.
Food and confectionery companies now credit sales growth more to volume than to price, a change that feeds directly into cocoa demand. According to Bezzon, quarterly results and media statements from the largest companies point in a similar direction, admitting that "volumes are starting to come back and that growth is coming more from people actually buying their products, and not only from higher prices, which is positive for cocoa". Volume-led growth means more chocolate leaving shelves, which requires more cocoa butter, powder and liquor from grinders. Specifically, it marks a break from the period after cocoa prices exploded, when price increases did much of the work for confectionery revenue.
Cocoa grinding grew fastest where beans were easiest to secure, with Ivory Coast up around 40%, Asia up almost 30% and Brazil up about 16% as processors drew on stronger harvests. The recovery, Bezzon explains, was "led much more by the producing countries and by Asia because of the supply that was more resilient there than by the traditional chocolate markets that still face some weakness". In contrast, Europe grew a little over 3%, its first annual increase since 2024, and North America declined about 2.5% from a stronger comparison base. The chocolate demand recovery therefore stems from improved bean availability and lower prices, so renewed pressure on supply costs would weigh on the same grinding volumes that have just recovered.
"Over the last couple of quarters, the hot weather in Europe hurt chocolate sales, and some orders came in earlier than usual," Bezzon points out. European chocolate demand is consequently recovering from a softer base than headline grinding volumes suggest, and early orders may have pulled some sales forward. Confectionery companies are also signaling that their costs are starting to rise again, which leaves the durability of the chocolate demand recovery unclear. For now, the consumer-level pickup in chocolate demand remains "a gradual movement" rather than a sharp rebound.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst
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Food and confectionery companies report that growth now comes from people buying more chocolate, not only from higher prices, giving cocoa demand a floor after a weak stretch. Hot weather in Europe, early orders and rising costs keep that recovery gradual.
October 20 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open to start the day, with the tech sector bracing for earnings from SpaceX and Netflix after today’s close, followed by Meta, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and IBM tomorrow. Eye-popping AI spending will be in focus, particularly as financing costs rise, with investors needing to see corresponding revenue growth to justify additional spending. The VIX is elevated slightly, hovering near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar is modestly lower to start the day, off roughly 0.2% to trade near 101.75. Treasury yields are starting the day mixed, with 2-year yields slightly higher to trade near 4.765%, while long-term yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year near 5.105% and 30-year just below 5.43%. Crude oil has carved out fresh highs this morning, with nearby WTI breaking above $100 for the first time in a month earlier in the session but now hanging near $99.70, while nearby Brent posted a five-month high near $112 but now trades near $110.30 at the time of writing. The ags are looking at a mostly higher start, with the grains and oilseeds looking for some turnaround Tuesday action.
October 19 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the week, with signs of a rotation of money flow back into tech after last week’s ugly selloff, as the Nasdaq shows the strongest open while the Dow Jones looks to start the day in the red, a reverse in course from last week’s trade. The VIX has fallen notably from Friday’s surge to a three-month high above 22, now hovering near 18.6 at the time of writing. The dollar is just above unchanged to start the morning, sitting near 101.83 after falling from the 18-month high put in near 103 last Wednesday. Treasury yields are looking to start the week modestly higher, with 2-year yields just above 4.75%, 10-year yields above 5.10%, and 30-year yields at 5.443%. Crude oil is taking back some of Friday’s sharp gains that pushed nearby WTI to a one-month high and nearby Brent to a five-month high, as both are down roughly 1.5% on the day to trade near $97.60 and $107.90, respectively. Elsewhere in the commodity sector, the ags are quietly mixed to start the week.
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