Cocoa prices have eased sharply from record highs, but the market has not returned to a position of comfort. As of early 2026, prices are correcting from crisis-driven extremes rather than from historically normal levels, leaving cocoa structurally tight despite the pullback. Global inventories remain depleted following severe drawdowns in 2024, and supply recovery remains uneven. These conditions mean cocoa continues to carry embedded risk premia even as volatility subsides.
Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, is a contributing author to the StoneX Cocoa Market Intelligence Quarterly Report and monitors global cocoa balances across producing regions. His work combines real-time analysis of grinding demand, port arrivals, and harvest outcomes, giving him a direct view into how normalization is unfolding without eliminating underlying market stress.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Cocoa prices have fallen by roughly 50 percent from 2024 highs but remain well above historical norms.
Demand contraction, not excess supply, is the primary driver of the recent price correction.
Low global stocks and uneven production recovery continue to support elevated risk premia.
Cocoa Prices Normalize as Crisis Demand Signals Fade
Cocoa prices are declining as extreme demand conditions unwind rather than because supply has become abundant. Bezzon explains that “cocoa prices have diminished by at least 50% during 2025”, stressing that the correction is occurring from unprecedented highs rather than normal market levels. He adds that “prices have been corrected from extreme levels, not from normal ones”, underscoring why cocoa remains historically expensive. Consequently, the market is shifting toward normalization without eliminating structural tightness.
Cocoa stock levels are expected to recover only partially following the severe depletion seen during 2024. Bezzon notes that “global stocks that are still pretty low… are probably going to be recompose during the next few harvests”, indicating that rebuilding will be gradual rather than decisive. This slow recovery keeps the market exposed to renewed weather and production risks, particularly in West Africa. As a result, cocoa prices continue to reflect scarcity risk even as the market moves away from crisis pricing.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Cocoa
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