The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence across commodity futures. While large speculators are stepping back from silver’s rally, bullish exposure in WTI crude oil continues to build.
Gold positioning remains steady, copper’s bullish structure lacks fresh conviction, and the US Dollar Index has seen modest short covering. Here’s what futures positioning reveals across silver, crude oil and key metals.
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COT Positioning Update – US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Oil and Metals
Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
US Dollar Index: Futures traders reduced their aggregate net-short exposure by $3.2 billion last week, taking total bearish positioning to -$19.6 billion.
Gold: Net-long exposure was broadly unchanged among large speculators and managed funds, at 159k and 96k contracts respectively.
Silver: Large specs remain cautious, trimming net-long exposure to a near two-year low of 22k contracts, while managed funds edged theirs higher to 8.5k contracts.
Copper: Despite weekly price action maintaining a bullish trend structure, net-long exposure was flat among large specs, and managed funds cut theirs to a 20-week low.
Platinum: Large specs and managed funds increased net-long exposure to five-week highs of 13.2k and 5k contracts respectively.
Palladium: Managed funds lifted net-long exposure to a 4.5-year high, although positioning remains modest at just 1k contracts.
WTI Crude Oil: Net-long exposure among large speculators rose to an eight-month high, reinforcing the constructive bias in crude oil futures.
Managed Funds Positioning | COT Report
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
COT Insights Across Gold, Silver, Copper and WTI Crude
Silver Futures Positioning | COT Report
I have long highlighted the caution shown by futures traders during gold and silver rallies, and this latest bounce in COMEX silver futures is no exception. Large speculators have reduced their net-long exposure to a near two-year low.
Gross longs have fallen to a 13-year low of 32.5k contracts, while gross shorts sit at a 13-year low of 10.2k contracts. Large specs are effectively stepping away from silver’s futures rally rather than chasing it higher.
Managed funds, meanwhile, appear to be tentatively leaning long. Net-long exposure has ticked up to 8.5k contracts — a five-week high — although positioning remains modest. Shorts are also subdued at 4.8k contracts, roughly one-third of the 13.4k gross longs.
Overall, positioning does not reflect strong conviction behind the rally. While bulls may attempt a push towards the 100 level in the near term, futures positioning suggests limited speculative enthusiasm for an immediate breakout to fresh highs.
Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG
WTI Crude Oil Futures Positioning | COT Report
I noted in prior COT reports that positioning in WTI crude oil futures was turning increasingly bullish, yet still far from a sentiment extreme. Large speculators in particular have made their bias clear: gross longs continue to trend higher while short exposure steadily declines.
Their net-long exposure now sits at a 33-week high of 172k contracts, with gross longs at a 34-week high of 352k contracts — roughly double the size of gross shorts. That imbalance underscores strong speculative conviction behind the current crude oil rally.
The 12% upside gap in WTI crude oil at Monday’s open suggests geopolitical risk tied to Iran was not fully priced in. If tensions escalate further, there remains room for higher oil prices given positioning is elevated but not stretched to historical extremes. Outside of spot prices trading at highs, futures sentiment does not yet reflect euphoric conditions.
Managed money accounts are also net-long WTI crude oil by 68k contracts, although the build is more measured. Notably, both longs and shorts are gradually rising, implying a more hedged or tactical approach compared with the directional conviction shown by large speculators.
Source: NYMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG
