By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
The U.S. Department of Agriculture put corn crop conditions at 57% good to excellent, down from 71% a year earlier and below the five-year average of 61%. Corn and soybean divergence took hold because that government condition data landed alongside a separate Pro Farmer Crop Tour, and the two data sets pushed the complex in opposite directions. The crop tour's corn yield estimate came in well below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's own corn yield figure, the widest divergence between the two on record, while the same tour put soybean yield above the government estimate at a level that would be a record if realized. For physical buyers, why it matters is that corn now carries two independent signals of a smaller crop while soybeans carry a bigger one, which changes how each leg of coverage is weighed.
Bertrand Oesterle is Vice President, Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX, where he tracks a range of commodity markets and contributes to StoneX market intelligence covering grains and oilseeds, the two complexes that split apart after the crop tour.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop conditions report put corn at 57% good to excellent against 71% a year ago, with the five-year average at 61%. As Oesterle puts it, "It's the first time in the season that we are below the five-year average". That government reading is a separate data set from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, whose independent field survey produced a corn yield estimate well under the U.S. Department of Agriculture's own yield number, the largest divergence between the two on record for both output and yield. Why it matters for physical buyers is that the smaller corn crop case no longer rests on one survey, because a government condition rating and a private field tour moved the same way for different reasons. Pro Farmer historically carries a tendency to estimate low, which is the standing counterargument to its number. Consequently, the corn leg is trading a tightening story while the market waits to see whether the eventual outcome lands closer to the tour estimate or the government one.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour put U.S. soybean yield and production above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's most recent estimates, at a yield that would be a record if realized. That bigger and better crop arrived when soybeans and soybean oil were already under pressure, because reporting suggested a decision on small refinery exemptions was due within roughly ten days. Layered on top, renewed pressure on energy markets fed into soybean oil and then the wider soybean complex, with rapeseed absorbing the same spillover. Oesterle is direct about how thinly understood the policy piece still is, noting that "We're not quite sure what it is, but the market has reacted very much to the downside on soybean oil". For a crusher or an oilseed buyer the consequence is that the soybean leg is priced off policy and energy as much as off the field.
"China could close the door and say, don't bother us on Iran. And if you do, we might turn off the tap on imports" , Oesterle says, framing the risk sitting underneath an otherwise constructive demand picture. China confirmed purchases of 712,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans through flash sales over the past week and announced a domestic auction of 290,000 tonnes to create storage space, which points toward more imports rather than fewer. Lower prices strengthen the commercial case for China to step in and buy. Conversely, a new package of sanctions against Iran that extends to anyone supporting Iran drew an immediate response from Beijing warning against interference in that relationship, which puts the commercial logic and the political logic in tension. For origination desks the impact is that Chinese demand cannot be modelled on price alone, because the same buyer can withdraw for reasons that have nothing to do with the crush margin.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales
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One crop tour sent corn to a three-year high and left soybeans under pressure in the same session. The split matters because it changes what physical buyers are covering, and why.
August 25 – Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday's gains while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq looking at a turnaround Tuesday. The VIX is roughly unchanged to start the day, hovering in the mid 15.8’s at the time of writing. The dollar is quietly higher again, still attempting to find its footing near the 99.0 level after last week’s sharp selloff. Treasury yields are moving lower to start the day, with 2-year yields pushing below 4.21%, while 10-year yields push below 4.66%, and 30-year yields below 5.19%. This cooldown in yields, especially at the longer end of the curve, is certainly welcomed news for the market amid bigger picture concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, but we’ll have to see if it can last. Crude oil is sharply lower to start the day after yesterday’s announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent came in less aggressive than feared and increased expectations that the U.S. will seek to escalate economically rather than militarily, potentially translating to less risk of longer-term damage to supply in the region. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi also noted that “significant progress” had been made in negotiations between the two sides, supporting ideas that these measures could act as a restart for more notable peace talks, though harsh rhetoric from Iranian officials do contrast with this. Nearby WTI is down 3.4% this morning, trading near $82.10, while nearby Brent is down 3.0%, trading near $87.80. Meanwhile, the ags are lower almost across the board despite a largely more bullish than expected USDA Crop Progress report after yesterday’s close.
August 24 – Stocks futures are pointing to a lower open to start the week amid a resumption of trade tensions and concerns regarding the potential downstream impact which we’ll dive into in more depth below. The VIX is elevated in response but still remains on the lower end of what we’ve seen in 2026, hovering around the 15.9 level at the time of writing. The dollar is quietly higher to start the week, appearing to find its footing after last week’s sharp break lower as it trades near 98.93. Treasuries are mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields rising to hover near 4.245% while long-term yields are off slightly, with 10-year yields trading at 4.714% and 30-year yields trading just below 5.24%. Crude oil is quietly lower this morning, with nearby WTI down roughly 1.2% on the day to trade near $85.60 and nearby Brent down 3.2% to trade near $91.40. The ags are mixed but mostly higher, led by corn after Friday’s shockingly low Pro Farmer Crop Tour yield estimate which we’ll also dive into in more depth below.
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