

The nat gas market extended Monday’s plunge into Tuesday’s trade given healthy production levels and unsteady demand expectations. More mild weather forecasts should keep demand tempered while allowing for above normal injections. Aug NG settled 4.1 cents lower at $3.415.

Following last week’s surprisingly larger than expected injection, a much smaller build is anticipated for the week ended June 27 given tighter fundamentals due to record heat. A build of 51 BCF is expected which would mark the first time since the 2nd week of April that stocks rose less than the 5 yr avg. Tomorrow’s number will compare to last year’s build of 35 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 61 BCF.
Early estimates for the week in progress show a build of 54 BCF which compares to last year’s build of 61 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 53 BCF.
Renewable energy, particularly solar generation, is helping take the pressure off of natural gas. Power burn during June 2025 was 1 BCF/day lower year over year while solar generation rose nearly 29% year over year in June. Last marked the 3rd time in 4 months that power burn came in below prior year levels, signaling a reversal of the recent strong upward trend. Looking ahead, power burn could remain subdued through the first half of July as temps average closer to normal

Prices are recovering this morning with the spot month up about 7 cents.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract traded down to a 3.293 low on Tuesday but recovered much of the early losses by the close as it settled the day at 3.415, down .041.
Buyers came in to bid the August contract back higher after it closed the gap created last week on the 60-minute chart at 3.320 during expiration of the July 25 contract.
The open gap was a bearish technical signal until closed. With the gap closed, the trend may be ready to turn back up following a .458 (12.2%) sell off over the past two sessions.
There should be strong resistance at the 3.545 (40 day)-3.580 (10 day) area where the 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged on the daily continuation chart.
If this resistance is broken, last week’s 3.751 high will become the next area of resistance.
But while the near term trend may turn back higher, the longer term trend is slowly turning back down.
Tuesday’s 3.294 low is near term support followed by last week’s 3.199 low. Longer term support is at 3.000 and 2.750.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 47.23






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



