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Payrolls and CPI arrive back to back, giving the U.S. dollar index a two-step test of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Labor data sets the first read, and the inflation update tests how well that read holds.
Wall Street is treating a divided Congress as a source of policy stability rather than a threat. Lower Treasury yields and fewer expected policy surprises are feeding the equity rally that followed the U.S. midterm elections.
November 5 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after yesterday’s surge higher, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday’s 3% gain and potentially flirt with pushing to three-month highs, while the tech heavy Nasdaq is looking at a lower open as money rotates out of tech, and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle. The VIX remains notably lower than recent weeks, though up slightly from yesterday’s close, hanging near 16.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is rebounding from yesterday’s losses amid unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market data this morning, reinforcing hawkish Fed bets, as it trades near 101.65. Treasury yields are higher to start the day as well, with 2-year yields trading at 4.618%, 10-year yields at 4.909%, and 30-year yields at 5.288%. Crude oil is bouncing after incredibly sharp losses in recent days, with nearby WTI currently up 2% on the day to trade near $89.80 and nearby Brent up 2.6% to trade near $97.10. Meanwhile, the ags are higher at the break as they look to find a rebound of their own.
Gold has historically gained more often in December than in November, giving the late-year calendar a measurable tilt. Gold seasonality carries the most weight when options sentiment and price structure point the same way.
Refiners are already pushing diesel output as far as their crude allows, and heating oil demand adds another call on the same plants. With refineries running at extremely high rates, one unplanned outage can jolt the whole refined products market.
Gold's rally after the U.S. midterm elections rests on a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields rather than on the election result itself. The U.S. jobs report and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations are the bigger test of how long that support holds.
Daily coffee report
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Fiscal risk in the long end and the belly keeps the U.S. Treasury yield curve exposed to steepening, even after the midterms. Safe-haven demand supports the front end while the refunding announcement puts the 20-year and 30-year sector in focus.
Fiscal risk in the long end and the belly keeps the U.S. Treasury yield curve exposed to steepening, even after the midterms. Safe-haven demand supports the front end while the refunding announcement puts the 20-year and 30-year sector in focus.
Eurozone headline inflation is climbing while core inflation holds steady, keeping concern about rising prices alive. Yet the euro is recovering against the dollar mainly because the U.S. dollar is weakening, not because of the inflation data.
Cheaper Brazilian frozen chicken is replacing local poultry production across the Mediterranean and Middle East, taking feed corn demand with it. Corn looks cheap after its slide, but without feed buyers the market struggles to attract fresh demand.
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Third party events|North America|Language: English
November 03 - November 05, 2026
San Diego, CA
StoneX Financial Inc.’s Fixed Income division will participate as an Experience Partner and Padfolio Sponsor at the 2026 NAGGL Annual Conference in San Diego. Visit Booth 32 to discuss SBA Loans and Pools, USDA Loans and 504 services with the StoneX team. With an SBA 7(a) Loan Pool Assembler license, StoneX helps aggregate individual SBA 7(a) loans into pooled securities, supporting liquidity in the SBA market and helping lenders reinvest capital.
Third party events|LATAM|Language: English
November 03 - November 06, 2026
Lima, Perú
Los líderes bancarios y financieros de toda América Latina se reunirán en la Asamblea Anual de FELABAN, y StoneX se enorgullece de ser parte de la conversación.
Como evento recurrente de la industria, FELABAN ofrece una oportunidad para conectarse con clientes, prospectos y colegas, mientras se exploran las tendencias que están dando forma al futuro de los servicios financieros y los pagos en toda la región.
Esperamos interactuar con los asistentes durante todo el evento y fortalecer las relaciones dentro de la comunidad bancaria latinoamericana.
Third party events|North America|Language: English
November 04 - November 05, 2026
Chicago, IL
StoneX is proud to be a Gold Sponsor of the ADPI Dairy Purchasing & Risk Management Seminar.
Join industry professionals in Chicago on November 4-5 for discussions on dairy markets, risk management strategies, and the key factors shaping the industry's outlook.
We look forward to connecting with clients, prospects, and peers and sharing insights on today's evolving dairy landscape.
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