After more than a year of record highs, cocoa markets are finally loosening. A surge in output from West Africa and a record harvest in Ecuador have helped erase the deficit that fueled 2024’s price rally. Improved rainfall, favorable logistics, and renewed investment are restoring balance to a market that had been defined by scarcity. The shift marks a crucial reset for traders, producers, and manufacturers navigating the next crop cycle.
Rafael Borges, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, provides insight into how the latest production rebound is reshaping global cocoa fundamentals and price behavior.
Key Themes from the Discussion
West African deliveries are recovering as favorable rains improve drying and port flow.
Ecuador’s record 2025 harvest has added more than 40 percent to global supply.
Demand remains subdued, tempering any rapid rebound after months of extreme prices.
The turnaround in cocoa fundamentals began as rains normalized across Ivory Coast and Ghana, enabling beans to dry and reach ports on time. Borges noted that “since the start of November those indications have started to come above what we expect”, signaling a decisive improvement in arrivals. Ecuador’s contribution, with output near 570 000 tonnes, underscores how regional diversification is stabilizing global flows. Together these trends have broken the scarcity cycle that defined the previous season.
Investment and Logistics Reinforce Market Stability
Higher prices through 2024 encouraged growers to reinvest in fertilizer use and crop maintenance, while governments improved inspection and delivery systems. According to Borges, these factors are supporting “a recovery … although still hindered by structural issues like aging trees and viral disease.” With weather patterns expected to remain supportive in the near term, the supply-side strength offers a foundation for more predictable pricing into 2026.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Rafael Borges, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Cocoa
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