Gold and Silver Prices Hinge on Israel's Vote and the U.S. Midterms

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have pulled back more than 8% from highs last seen in 2002, and silver has already broken to new 2026 lows. Gold prices and elections are linked through that bond market move, since Israel's vote and the U.S. midterm elections can shift the geopolitical outlook, the direction of crude oil, and the U.S. dollar that set the tone for precious metals. Gold is still holding above its 2026 lows, but it has slipped back below a 10-year trendline that had supported its rally. With the war with Iran and energy disruption around the Strait of Hormuz ongoing, the next moves in yields and the dollar shape whether the metals selloff extends.

Razan Hilal, CMT, StoneX Media Market Analyst, has spent seven years analyzing forex, stocks, commodities, and equity indices as a Chartered Market Technician based in Dubai. Her work centers on technical and intermarket analysis, tracking how moves in bond yields and the U.S. dollar carry across into gold and silver for an audience across the Middle East and beyond.

Key Themes

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have pulled back more than 8% from highs last seen in 2002.
• Israel's vote and the U.S. midterm elections can alter the geopolitical outlook and crude oil direction.
• Silver is testing new 2026 lows, and gold remains above its own.

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Geopolitical Risk Reaches Gold Through Treasury Yields and the Dollar

Geopolitical risk from Israel's vote, the U.S. midterm elections, and the war with Iran reaches gold mainly through crude oil, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index. Hilal flags the two elections as events that can alter both the geopolitical outlook and the direction of crude oil, against a backdrop of extended energy market disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold has already slipped back below a 10-year trendline that connected higher highs from 2016 and later served as support. According to Hilal, "there are bearish risks on the horizon that need a confirmation in line with Treasury yields and the broader geopolitical situation and the U.S. dollar index direction". For gold, the election outcomes therefore matter less as headlines than as forces acting on yields and the dollar.

Silver Slides to New 2026 Lows as Oversold Signals Build

Silver has broken below its 2026 lows at a point that lines up with a key Fibonacci extension of its 2026 cycle. Silver's daily RSI has dropped back to oversold conditions last seen in June 2026, which leaves room for a potential consolidation. Hilal describes the steep bearish move across 2026 as one that "may be perceived as a contrarian indicator for a rebound", although a failure to stabilize keeps lower long-term supports in view. Silver therefore enters the election calendar already at its lows for the year, whereas gold still has a cushion above its own.

Silver Rebound Hinges on a Return of Risk-On Sentiment

A silver rebound first requires price action to climb back above the declining resistance that connected lower highs between January and August 2026. A sustained move through that resistance and the levels tested across September and October 2026 would point to a broader bullish rebound on the silver chart. "That scenario would likely be aligned with the return of risk on sentiment across the broader markets", Hilal says. In contrast, a bullish reversal in U.S. Treasury yields or a firmer U.S. dollar index would work against that scenario, adding pressure on both silver and gold.

--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer

--- Expert: Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst