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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

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September 2 – Stock futures rallied into positive territory this morning, while many of the food and energy commodities gave way to profit taking following recent gains. Russia and Ukraine continue to trade strikes on commodity logistics while tensions with Iran remain high after a series of U.S. strikes yesterday. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.78%, after hitting a nearly three-year high earlier in the session just below 4.82%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.38%. WTI crude oil pulled back a bit to trade near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $95 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector saw notable losses across the board overnight as producers and speculators both cash in on recent gains to multi-year highs, although little has changed in the fundamentals this morning.

The private sector created 38K jobs in August, according to this morning’s ADP report, down modestly from 46K in July, and down from analyst expectations of 48K, although still showing growth, nonetheless. These aren’t the big positive numbers that we’d become accustomed to over the years, but they also need to be looked at in context. Our population isn’t growing like it once was, and some analysts claim that we actually need to create near zero jobs on a monthly basis due to the current reverse immigration in the United States to keep the job force in good balance. Yesterday’s JOLTS report showed 7.271 million job postings at the end of July, up from a downwardly revised 7.182 million the previous month, although below expectations of 7.358 million postings. Yet, that translates into 1.05 job openings per person seeking employment – essentially a job market that is in good balance. Recent business surveys reflect frustration by businesses wanting to expand, but unable to find enough qualified workers. We’ll get the government’s monthly jobs report for August on Friday, with analyst expectations that it will show that the economy created 55K jobs during the month, with the unemployment rate expected to tick higher to just 4.2%.

U.S. launched the largest attacks on Iran since July yesterday following Iranian strikes on two tankers carrying Saudi oil near the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. strikes appeared to focus on Iran’s capability to hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran continues to defiantly say that it will keep the Strait closed. President Trump continues to make claims that the United States has control of the Strait with ships free to move through it without fear of hitting mines. Transponder data suggests that very few ships are passing through the Strait, but some sources now suggest that perhaps somewhere near 7 million barrels per day are making it through the Strait utilizing ship-to-ship transfers, leading to Iran stepping up efforts to stop the movement of oil through the Strait. Iran tried to retaliate by striking at U.S. military bases in the Middle East, but those efforts have largely been futile thus far. The U.S. blockade of Iranian oil is one of the factors putting economic pressure on Iran. For its part, Iran says that it will keep other neighboring countries from exporting oil as long as the blockade against it is in force. Yet, it has struggled increasingly to stop that outside oil flow. Nonetheless, energy prices remain elevated due to the still restricted oil flow relative to pre-war levels, combined with Ukraine’s numerous strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.

Russia again hit Kyiv overnight as it continues to strike at infrastructure within Ukraine, while also hitting reported civilian targets. This comes as Ukraine also continues to hit Russia’s commodity infrastructure. Neither side appears willing to back off the strikes, with each believing that it can gain the competitive edge by shutting off the other’s ability to export food and energy commodities. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war risks pulling NATO directly into the conflict. Germany formally accused Russia this week for a drone attack on its Leipzig airport nearly a month ago. An explosive-laden drone was discovered on August 4th near a Ukrainian cargo plane, leading to a temporary shutdown of the airport. The drone failed to explode. Germany now says that Russia was behind that drone. A second drone collided with a cargo plane nearby, and a third was found near the airport 10 days later. Russian President Putin accused Germany of planting evidence against it, while former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev threatened Germany with a “direct strike” on facilities producing military equipment. Russia has publicly expressed frustration at NATO’s support of Ukraine via providing military equipment to it, threatening to take action against it.

U.S. corn and soybean futures rose to fresh multi-year highs overnight, before sinking into this morning’s trade as producer and speculative selling added pressure in thin overnight volume. Little changed fundamentally overnight, but weaker crude oil prices combined with the temptation of locking in profits at multi-year highs. India is licking its chops at the possibility of exporting wheat at this time of a Black Sea shutdown, although there are significant questions about its ability to export much wheat of sufficient quality to find demand. The fact is that the world is still currently adequately supplied, but the loss of Black Sea supplies raises fears of shortfalls later in the marketing year, combined with strong demand driven by a move toward biofuels amid the high price of fossil fuels.   

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This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


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