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The MarketWatch Update

By: US RJO - Scott Magnuson, CTA, Analyst

June 4, 2026 

I liked Mr. Powell, I thought he did an honorable job and was steadfast to the end for the right reasons.  Admirable... to say the least and can you imagine if he buckled and influenced the Board to lower rates considering what's transpired since his decision to stick with the mandate of the Fed's intended purpose?  Have you ever read, "The Creature from Jekyll Island"?  Put it on your list.

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First goes the Past Chairman, then the Fed dot plot, then forward guidance - I wouldn't be surprised yet if Paul Volker doesn't show up soon on the media horizon.  But what LaSalle street is talking about in our coffee chug' breaks, is just when the first hike take place...?

 Today’s Market News and Trading Highlights

...Not if - When.  Look at the Fed Funds right now. 

The Federal Reserve's quarterly "dot plot" rate forecasts may soon lose their last projected rate cut, the so-called easing dot, and the plot itself could possibly disappear altogether.

Then markets would have to work out whether Kevin Warsh is really the inflation hawk he once purported to be. If he is, that might yet prove a shock for ​some investors.

Crude oil prices and Treasury yields fell following a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, driving optimism for a wider peace deal with Iran.  However, the Iran-backed group Hezbollah is excluded from this agreement.

Fog of War Update: Iran, Hezbolla and the Revolutionary Gurard

The region remains locked in a repetitive cycle: Hezbollah launches attacks, Israel retaliates with airstrikes inside Lebanon, a temporary ceasefire is negotiated, Israeli forces withdraw, and Hezbollah resumes attacks. Despite years of denying any connection to the group, Iran heavily finances Hezbollah and now demands its protection as a condition for peace.

Concurrently, President Trump is pressuring Israel to show restraint to facilitate a broader deal with Iran. Negotiations face a structural hurdle within Iran itself: while appointed diplomatic negotiators favor a peace deal, the ruling Revolutionary Guard opposes it. The Revolutionary Guard aims to stall negotiations until after the U.S. midterm elections, betting they can pressure the public by maintaining high energy prices through the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Meanwhile, overnight wheat prices recovered slightly but gave up gains by the close, corn and soybean prices continued their downward trend. July corn reached new contract lows due to favorable Midwest weather and growing demand concerns.  No concerns yet about the coming El Nino... some of my closest traders are scratching their heads.  Personally, i just brush my hair back.  Running your fingers through your hair after all this time is a real blessing... no further comment - i know some are 'sensitive'. 

They just scratch right to the scalp... but still look like gentlemen! 

All else, as they say in the elevator, is history today and more of the same with a little bit of this, that, and the other, and so on and so forth... in wide swinging, highly volatile headline sensitive markets... Ehhhh

But more gems are beginning to sparkle. So, we'll take note, be observant, objective, and we see what the month brings us next.   

Update on the beginning of a new Sugar campaign detailed below...

(source contributors: Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, St n X- MI, AP, BBC, LME, CME Grp., ICE, FCL Ltd. CNN)

Tomorrows Key Trading Reports

08:30 ET:  Nonfarm Payrolls  For: May | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 95K-105K | Prior: 115K 

08:30 ET:  Nonfarm Private Payrolls  For: May | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 99K | Prior: 123K 

08:30 ET:  Unemployment Rate  For: May | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 4.3% | Prior: 4.3% 

08:30 ET:  Average Hourly Earnings  For: May | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.2% 

(source: Briefing Data Svc) 

New Trading Suggestions

There are no new trading recommendation for Friday's market session. 

 (chart graphics: ICE Data Svc's-FS, Bloomberg, FCL Ltd, Reuters, CQG)

*    *    *    *    *  

 Current Open Trades and Position Management

We added to our long position in the October Sugar from 15.10 today at 14.70 for a position average of 14.90.  Keep you adjusted protective sell stop at 14.30 on both positions. First objective remains a close over 15.45.   

Market Watch-List of Developing Opportunities

  Dec Corn, July Cotton, July Copper, July Cocoa

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Scott Magnuson, CTA : 888.861.1755

scott.magnuson@stonex.com

All futures and options strategies presented involve risk of loss and do not take into account individual investment objectives or risk tolerance. Trade responsibly. The strategies provided do not account for commission deductions and fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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