Biomass-based diesel has generated about 5.3 billion RINs, only 59% of the 2026 target under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard. The gap between RIN generation and the Renewable Fuel Standard target is a key source of support for soybean oil biofuel demand, because closing it would require credit generation at a pace never seen before. U.S. soybean oil stocks had already fallen to a 21-month low on strong domestic demand, so how much feedstock the biofuel sector still needs matters for every soybean oil buyer and crusher. Policy decisions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency now decide when that demand actually lands.
Isabela Garcia, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, produces commodity market intelligence and pricing research for commercial agricultural clients across South America. Her work covers grain, oilseed and related markets, where soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector feeds directly into pricing and risk management decisions.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Biomass-based diesel RIN generation stands at about 59% of the 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard target.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency exemptions equal to 1.6 billion RINs for 2025 pressure both RINs and soybean oil.
Reallocation of the exempted volumes remains undecided, leaving the timing of extra soybean oil demand unclear.
Renewable Fuel Standard Credits Tie U.S. Biofuel Output to Soybean Oil Demand
RIN generation under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard works as a live gauge of soybean oil biofuel demand, because refiners must hold the credits to prove they met their blending obligations. "Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, every gallon of biodiesel or renewable diesel produced generates a credit called a RIN, or renewable identification number," Garcia explains. Garcia describes RIN generation as "a good indicator of biofuel and indirectly of soybean oil demand". As a result, the pace of RIN generation is one of the clearest signals of how much soybean oil the U.S. biofuel sector is absorbing.
RIN Generation Gap Keeps U.S. Soybean Oil Feedstock Demand Firm
Biomass-based diesel, the D4 RIN category, has generated about 5.3 billion RINs, just 59% of the 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard target. Meeting the mandate would require RIN generation in the final months of the year to run at a pace never seen before. For soybean oil, the shortfall translates into a large block of biofuel feedstock demand still to be filled before the compliance year closes. According to Garcia, "the gap is still large and there's a source of support for feedstock demand."
EPA Small Refinery Exemptions Cloud the Timing of Soybean Oil Demand
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency granted small refinery exemptions equal to about 1.6 billion RINs for 2025, almost twice what was initially expected, putting pressure on both RINs and soybean oil. The agency has since formally proposed reallocating the exempted volumes over the next few years, but the split is unresolved. "We don't know if it'll be reallocated to 2026," Garcia says, "or split between this year and next." Until that question is settled, the size of the near-term boost to soybean oil biofuel demand stays uncertain, even though Garcia points to "an increase in soybean oil demand in the U.S. linked to the biofuel sector."
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