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Sr. Technical Strategist
USD/CAD has pulled back more than 2% after breaking below its monthly opening range, dragging the pair into a support zone where several technical markers converge. The USD/CAD monthly opening range break followed a five-week rally of more than 4% off the August low, a rally that ran out of momentum early in the month at a major Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 decline. Price has since stalled inside that support zone, with back-to-back Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions adding fresh event risk. How USD/CAD behaves in this zone now frames the next leg for the Canadian dollar.
Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, has spent more than 20 years trading foreign exchange, commodities and equity indices across numerous trade desks. He analyzes currency pairs across multiple time frames with a medium-term, event-driven focus, tracking how monthly ranges, Fibonacci retracements and channel structures behave around central bank decisions.
USD/CAD broke below its monthly opening range after a five-week rally of more than 4% stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the 2025 highs. According to Boutros, "Dollar CAD rallied more than 4.1% off that August low, with a five week rally exhausting early into the month at a major Fibonacci level." The USD/CAD opening range took shape just below that resistance zone, so the break of its lower boundary marked the point where the rally turned into a reversal, with the decline extending more than 2.3% from the highs. In practical terms, the monthly opening range gave USD/CAD a defined structure, separating a stalled rally from a confirmed change in direction rather than leaving traders to read an arbitrary line on the chart.
USD/CAD has stalled where the 50% retracement of the August advance, the July low daily close and the 25% parallel of the yearly uptrend converge, posting consecutive doji candles without a daily close below the zone. On the intraday chart, a pitchfork drawn from the recent swing high shows USD/CAD rebounding off its lower parallel, and the pair is, in Boutros's words, "trading right below the median line with major event risk on tap". An intraday break of USD/CAD support counts for little until a daily close confirms it, which is why the close carries more weight than the low of any single session. A confirmed close below the zone opens the path toward the 61.8% retracement of the August rally, whereas a recovery through the 38.2% retracement puts near-term resistance back in focus. Back-to-back Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions, followed by core PCE inflation and Q3 GDP data, are the catalysts testing USD/CAD at this confluence.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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A five-week USD/CAD rally ran out of momentum at a major Fibonacci retracement, and a break of the monthly opening range turned it into a pullback of more than 2%. The pair now sits at a support zone where several technical markers converge, just as back-to-back Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions arrive.
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