Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo

Copper Prices Now Trade on Tariff Fear More Than Fundamentals

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray

Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region

Copper’s surge above $13,000 per tonne has coincided with a growing fixation on U.S. trade policy rather than end-user demand. The possibility of tariffs on refined copper imports has altered arbitrage dynamics and redirected global flows. This has created a market where pricing reflects political risk more than consumption trends. Such conditions leave copper vulnerable to sharp repricing if policy expectations shift.

Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX, examines how tariff speculation and inventory concentration are redefining copper price formation.

Key Themes from the Discussion

  • Tariff uncertainty has become a central input into copper pricing.
  • U.S.-focused trade flows are distorting global inventory distribution.
  • Policy expectations are outweighing traditional demand indicators.

Watch the Full Conversation

Discover Actionable Metals Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence

Tariff Risk Becomes a Price Premium

The prospect of U.S. tariffs has introduced a structural premium into copper prices that did not exist in previous cycles. Scott-Gray explains that last year tariffs were “single handedly responsible for total trade rerouting” as material flooded into the U.S. market. With around two thirds of global stocks now sitting on Comex, availability outside the U.S. has tightened significantly. This imbalance has amplified price sensitivity to any shift in tariff expectations.

Politics Overpower Physical Signals

Despite clear signs of demand destruction in China, prices continue to trade near record highs. Scott-Gray notes that China accounts for 58% of global demand, yet the market is “ignoring that side of the factor” as investors focus on policy risk. The CME–LME spread suggests only a small probability of tariffs, but even that uncertainty is enough to move prices. In this environment, copper is behaving less like an industrial input and more like a geopolitical asset.

Make Metals Insights Your Competitive Advantage

Access live prices, supply and demand data, and actionable market commentary focused on the Metals sector. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and see how our Metals insights can elevate your strategy.

 

Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today
 
See our financial videos hub
 

--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer

--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst

  • Base Metals

StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Base Metals

StoneX TV New Quarterly Series – The Base Case: AI and the Cycle

AI copper demand reaches well beyond data centers into aging power grids, while copper now trades in step with AI and tech stocks on risk-off days. Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst EMEA & Asia, is joined by Giles Plumb, Head of Base Metals Trading; Philip Meijer, Options Sales Trade; Michael Price, Senior Base Metal Sales; and Michael Cuoco, Head of Fund Sales, Metals and Bulks, to explain how AI is reshaping the copper market. The panel weighs whether data center copper demand is already priced in, and why a hot U.S. inflation print pulled copper lower alongside AI and semiconductor stocks. They also cover rising copper volatility, thinner liquidity on the London Metal Exchange, record options open interest, and the strategic weight of U.S. copper stocks.

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray
  • Base Metals

Copper's Nine-Year Chart Pattern Is Tightening as the Metals Pull Back

Copper's contracting formation since 2017 is tightening as prices pull back from multi-year resistance alongside gold and silver. The lower edge of that range now meets the golden ratio Fibonacci zone and an uptrend in place since 2020, making it the area that defines copper's long-term structure.

Razan Hilal
Razan Hilal
  • Base Metals

LME Copper Options Open Interest Climbs as Futures Prove Too Volatile

Open interest in LME traded options has climbed to record highs as copper's price swings grow faster and deeper. StoneX metals specialists explain how AI-driven positioning, risk-off selloffs and thin liquidity are pushing market participants beyond outright futures.

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray
  • Base Metals
StoneX: Your access to global markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.