Bitcoin Update: Is Buying Momentum Around BTC Starting to Fade?

Recent trading sessions have become increasingly challenging for the strength of the market's leading cryptocurrency, BTC. Bitcoin has now posted four consecutive bearish sessions, accumulating a decline of nearly 4.0% during that period. This behavior has once again brought selling pressure back into focus across the market.

For now, this downside pressure remains in place as more stable markets continue regaining attractiveness, a situation that has begun limiting part of the demand previously observed around Bitcoin in the short term. As long as this dynamic persists, selling pressure around BTC could continue to play an important role during the coming trading sessions.

Is Short-Term Demand Beginning to Weaken?

During the current trading week, several relevant developments have emerged across financial markets that have started to reduce confidence around demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Part of this situation is linked to renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly following recent tensions between the United States and Iran.

This environment continues to generate inflation concerns for major economies as crude oil prices, particularly WTI, have moved above the $100 area, increasing pressure on energy costs and potentially contributing to stronger inflationary pressures over the coming months.

The key point to consider is that this environment could strengthen expectations of more aggressive central banks. In fact, during today's ECB decision, comments from Lagarde suggested that as long as tensions in the Middle East remain in place, central banks could continue shifting toward a more restrictive stance in the months ahead.

This backdrop is not especially favorable for markets such as BTC because rising inflation uncertainty typically reduces appetite for risk assets. At the same time, it may increase the attractiveness of more defensive markets such as bonds as investors adjust to expectations of higher interest rates.

That is precisely what has begun to develop throughout the week. 10-year bond yields across economies such as the United States, Canada, and Europe continue moving higher in a similar fashion, with all three markets now reaching fresh highs for 2026. U.S. yields have approached 5.0%, Canadian yields are nearing 4.0%, and European yields have advanced toward the 3.8% area.

This synchronized move not only reflects expectations of more restrictive monetary policy, but also increases the attractiveness of the returns offered by these instruments. As a result, part of the market's capital may begin shifting toward more stable assets, limiting the ability of risk markets such as Bitcoin to maintain strong demand momentum.

Source: TradingEconomics

It is also interesting to observe how this growing preference for more stable markets has started to appear in some important Bitcoin-related indicators.

This can be seen through the behavior of Open Interest, an indicator that measures the total number of open positions across BTC exchanges. During recent sessions, Open Interest has recovered above the $26 billion area, signaling greater activity across the market.

However, because this increase in Open Interest has coincided with falling Bitcoin prices, the move could suggest that an important portion of these new positions is associated with bearish activity. This may indicate that short-term confidence around Bitcoin demand has started to weaken in response to the events observed throughout the current trading week.

Source: CryptoQuant

Taking all of this into account, it appears that the advance of safer markets such as bonds has already begun limiting confidence around the BTC market in the short term.

If investors continue pricing in persistent inflation pressures and a more aggressive stance from major central banks, part of the market's capital could continue shifting toward more stable assets. Under this scenario, risk-oriented markets such as Bitcoin may continue facing difficulties in establishing a stronger recovery.

In addition, if this backdrop remains accompanied by elevated inflation data, such as the upcoming U.S. CPI release scheduled for tomorrow, selling pressure around BTC could remain relevant during the next few trading sessions.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Neutrality Begins to Gain Relevance: Although Bitcoin's price action began forming a potential bullish trendline several weeks ago, the most recent market movements have started to reflect an increasingly evident neutral phase. The lack of direction is beginning to dominate BTC's price action and, if this behavior continues, a broader period of consolidation could become increasingly relevant on the daily chart.
   
• MACD: The MACD histogram continues to fluctuate near the neutral 0 level, a situation that reflects balance within the average strength of short-term moving averages. As long as this behavior remains in place, a phase of indecision could continue to be a key feature of the chart.
   
• RSI: The RSI displays a similar dynamic as it continues to fluctuate around the neutral 50 level. This reading reflects balance between bullish and bearish momentum over the last 14 trading sessions, reinforcing the idea that neutrality remains an important component of the market despite recent price fluctuations.
   

Key Levels to Watch:

• 81,600 – Key Resistance: A recent high and the most important upside barrier within the current market structure. Price action capable of breaking above this level could restore relevance to a stronger bullish bias and support the formation of a more established bullish trendline over the coming weeks.
   
• 73,600 – Nearby Barrier: A level that coincides with retracement zones observed in previous months and could become the primary reference area to monitor should additional bearish corrections begin developing in the short term.
   
• 70,000 – Critical Support: A major support zone that coincides with both the 50-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages. A move back toward this level could undermine confidence in the recovery observed during previous weeks, threaten the formation of a potential bullish trendline, and create room for a more dominant bearish bias over the coming weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow Him: @julianpineda25