Trade Ideas

Warsh's comments accelerated the EUR/USD selloff, raising the stakes as buyers look to stabilize the broader recovery.

For much of this week, the EUR/USD has been edging lower with the US dollar regaining some ground after last week’s sell-off that was triggered, in part, by the bond market worries. Investors have been unwilling to bet further against the US dollar so far this week ahead of Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole summit, due later today.

A bullish breakout has pushed AUD/CAD to its highest level since early 2021. Whether it can clear 0.9994 may determine if the move extends well above parity.

Historical Jackson Hole returns point to elevated Nikkei 225 volatility around Fed speech day, with Nasdaq 100 direction hinging on Kevin Warsh.

Much of this week’s attention has been on Nvidia’s earnings, and the chipmaker delivered the sort of numbers of investors had been hoping for. US index futures initially wobbled before moving higher overnight, with the results providing a fresh lift to the AI trade

Australia’s latest inflation report was ugly enough to make mortgage holders feel sick, and traders have responded by rapidly ramping up RBA hike bets. The Aussie is now breaking key levels across the major crosses.

Gold was down nearly 1.5% on the session, with US indices and Bitcoin also struggling. Is this a mere pause before more gains are seen, or have we already seen the end of the recent bullish advance?

But the question, of course, is how much further oil prices and bond yields can fall. For now, the combination is supportive of risk assets and is helping to sustain a relatively benign decline in the dollar. The focus today will be on US core PCE inflation, due for release shortly, while Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings will provide another test for risk appetite after the US markets close – not just for US indices but for global tech-heavy indices given the influence Nvidia has over the global tech and AI names.

Three failed breakout attempts and fading momentum have put Bitcoin bulls on notice. Another rejection could open the door lower just as attention swings back towards NVIDIA and the AI trade.

AUD/USD is closing in on 72c as Australian and US inflation reports collide with Jackson Hole, setting the stage for a potentially volatile end to the week.

The AUD/USD continues to grind higher - as it has done so ever since risk assets bottomed back in April 2025. The Aussie has benefitted from rising metals prices and a strong Chinese yuan. The US dollar meanwhile has had bouts of strength here and there, but not much against the Aussie. The recent bond market stress has further increased the US dollar debasement calls. The focus now is turning to key data from both Australia and the US, and the Jackson Hole symposium.

The relative calm in the energy and bond markets have allowed the US dollar and equities to make a slightly positive start to the week. America’s economic war on Iran also failed to trigger any panic, leaving investors with little to chew over until the release of US inflation data on Wednesday and Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.