Fundamental Analysis

Australia’s latest inflation report was ugly enough to make mortgage holders feel sick, and traders have responded by rapidly ramping up RBA hike bets. The Aussie is now breaking key levels across the major crosses.

PCE may still matter to policymakers at the Fed, but for traders looking for a genuine volatility event, CPI has been the far more reliable release.

The last Core PCE before the Fed's September meeting will mark 65 straight months above the central bank's 2% target - will it be enough to push the FOMC toward a rate hike?

The US dollar moved against its recent macro playbook on Monday. AUD/USD paid the price, although bulls still hold the upper hand.

Gold has surged to fresh multi-month highs, but tentative signs the US dollar may be trying to bottom provide an early warning for bulls.

EUR/USD flashes reversal signals after a powerful move higher, just as markets wait for Scott Bessent to provide more detail on how he plans to take pressure off the long end of the US curve.

Treasury is fighting market forces just as Warsh wants them to do more of the work. The battle over who sets long-term borrowing costs could be the defining driver for USD/JPY this week.

The franc was the standout G10 performer after Treasury announced larger long-end buybacks this week. Strong fundamentals and shifting correlations suggest the move may have further to run.

A $40 trillion debt pile, rising interest costs and a more interventionist Treasury are giving dollar bears something to think about. EUR/USD sits at the centre of that debate.

The US dollar was hammered after Treasury moved to support longer-dated bonds, sending gold and silver sharply higher. It may be premature to declare the debasement trade back, but the embers are glowing.

Precious metals are rangebound, the dollar is hanging tough and traditional macro signals have turned messy. The FOMC minutes may help determine which side breaks first.

USD/CAD delivers bullish reversal signal just as a key US-Canada tariff deadline approaches. The outcome could determine whether the bearish trend extends or snaps back sharply.