Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX falls as Trump says Iran deal is off

US futures                                          

Dow futures 0.97%, S&P futures -0.43%  & Nasdaq futures -0.15%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -1.35% & DAX -1.83%

• U.S futures are falling amid renewed geopolitical tensions
• Trump says deal with Iran is over
• FOMC minutes are due later
• Oil jumps 6% on renewed supply worries

U.S. Stocks Open Lower as Middle East Tensions Overshadow Fed Minutes

U.S. stocks are opening lower on Wednesday, after President Trump declared at the NATO summit that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was effectively over.

Wall Street's three major indices are under pressure as investors reassess the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East and a slower normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the key question for markets is whether Trump's comments signal a genuine breakdown in negotiations or merely another temporary setback in what has been an unpredictable diplomatic process.

Earlier this week, investors largely shrugged off renewed exchanges of strikes between the U.S. and Iran, assuming diplomacy would ultimately prevail. Today's reaction suggests that confidence is beginning to fade, forcing markets to reprice geopolitical risk after becoming increasingly complacent that the memorandum of understanding had removed the threat of further disruption in the region.

The shift in sentiment is most evident in energy markets, with oil prices jumping sharply and Treasury yields moving higher as investors price the risk that renewed supply disruptions could reignite inflationary pressures.

Alongside geopolitical developments, attention will also turn to today's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting. The meeting was viewed as more hawkish than markets had expected, with nine of the 18 policymakers projecting at least one further rate hike before the end of 2026. Investors will be looking for greater insight into how concerned officials remain about inflation.

Corporate Movers

Broadcom is rising after Apple announced plans to spend more than $30 billion as part of a chip supply agreement reached earlier this week with the chip maker.

Energy stocks are outperforming as higher crude prices lift earnings expectations. Chevron is up more than 2%, while Exxon Mobil has gained around 1.5%.

On the other side of the trade, airlines and cruise operators are under pressure as higher fuel costs threaten to squeeze margins if oil prices remain elevated.

Memory-chip stocks continue to weaken as investors take profits across the AI sector. Micron is down around 4.5%, while SanDisk has fallen more than 5%.

Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

After reaching a record high near 30,750, the Nasdaq has formed a series of lower highs before breaking below rising trendline support and the 50-day SMA.

The index is now testing support around 28,900, ahead of the June low at 28,400. A break below that level would create a lower low, opening the door towards the psychological 28,000 level before exposing 27,000 and the 200-day SMA near 26,250.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA. A move back above that level would bring 30,000 into focus, followed by 30,325 and the key resistance zone around 30,650.

FX Markets – Dollar Holds Firm

The U.S. dollar is holding near a one-week high following President Trump's comments, although the relatively muted reaction suggests investors are not yet convinced that diplomacy has completely broken down.

EUR/USD is holding around 1.1400, close to its weakest level in a year, as higher oil prices revive inflation concerns and support expectations that the ECB could deliver around 30 basis points of additional tightening this year. Political developments are also in focus after France's Marine Le Pen confirmed she intends to run in the 2027 presidential election.

GBP/USD is little changed despite renewed geopolitical tensions. Investors remain focused on domestic politics, with Andy Burnham expected to succeed Keir Starmer as Prime Minister later this month. Markets continue to watch closely for his cabinet appointments, particularly the choice of Chancellor, for clues over the future direction of UK fiscal policy.

Oil Rises as Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns

Oil prices have surged around 6% to a two-week high after President Trump declared that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was effectively over, reviving fears of renewed supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Crude had already rallied yesterday after the U.S. revoked the waiver allowing Iranian crude exports. Trump's comments have added to those gains by increasing the likelihood that tensions could escalate further.

The sharp rebound suggests markets had become overly optimistic in assuming geopolitical risks had largely disappeared. While the medium-term outlook still points towards improving global supply as OPEC+ increases production, renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has forced investors to rebuild a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices.