By: Alex Hodes, Energy Analyst - KC Energy
In Episode 13 of Focus on Fuels, StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan brought in Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, to help unpack what a massive harvest could mean for diesel, propane, and fuel buyers across the Midwest.
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Key Takeaways:
Suderman said this fall’s harvest could be one of the largest on record. Corn and soybeans are up, and wheat is also strong. That means more combines, more trucks, and more diesel. The western Corn Belt – especially the Dakotas and Minnesota – is leading. But the east is trailing, which flips the usual pattern and creates storage problems in the northwest. That, in turn, means more hauling.
Soybean exports are down. China hasn’t booked any new U.S. soybeans, and Brazil is meeting more of its demand. With no trade deal in place, soybeans are going into storage. Rail bids in the northwest have dried up, which lowers rail fuel demand. But that grain still has to move, and it’s now heading south and east by truck.
Propane demand for crop drying could swing either way. If the fall is warm, farmers might let crops dry in the field. But if disease weakens corn stalks, they’ll harvest early to avoid loss, and that means more drying and more propane. “The farmer’s going to be trying to reduce his costs,” Suderman said, especially with today’s low prices.
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---Written by: Andrew Catsimanes, Copywriter
---Experts: Alex Hodes, Director of Energy Market Strategy and Trevor McClanahan, Energy Risk Manager
---Experts: Guest: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
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Crude oil is coiling inside a compression regime while the Strait of Hormuz sits unresolved, with diplomacy pulling the risk premium out and disrupted shipping holding it in. Fiona Cincotta unpacks what a two-sided oil market means for anyone reading the tape rather than the headlines.
August 26 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with a dearth of economic data to parse through this morning and various geopolitical developments catching attention. The VIX remains in a relatively tight range near the low-end of what we’ve seen for most of 2026, starting the day around the 15.7 level. The dollar is up 0.2% on the day, hovering just above 99.11 at the time of writing, maintaining a quiet week after last week’s sharp drop. Crude oil is looking to extend its slide this week amid a renewed potential movement toward normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearby WTI down 0.5% to trade near $80.70 and nearby Brent down 1.4% to trade near $86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are looking at a quiet move higher to start the day, though the bigger rises are at the front-end of the curve, which should put the U.S. Department of Treasury in a good mood this morning. 2-year yields are up to 4.224%, 10-year yields are up to 4.66%, and 30-year yields are trading at 5.185%--off notably from their recent peak above 5.33%. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, with the wheat complex seeing double-digit gains following fresh strikes on vessels in the Black Sea from both sides, coinciding with Tunisia announcing a tender for 125,000 metric tons of optional origin milling wheat, warning that suppliers may not invoke force majeure due to the escalations in the Black Sea, which draws more focus to the impact this conflict may have on global wheat trade.
August 25 – Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday's gains while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq looking at a turnaround Tuesday. The VIX is roughly unchanged to start the day, hovering in the mid 15.8’s at the time of writing. The dollar is quietly higher again, still attempting to find its footing near the 99.0 level after last week’s sharp selloff. Treasury yields are moving lower to start the day, with 2-year yields pushing below 4.21%, while 10-year yields push below 4.66%, and 30-year yields below 5.19%. This cooldown in yields, especially at the longer end of the curve, is certainly welcomed news for the market amid bigger picture concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, but we’ll have to see if it can last. Crude oil is sharply lower to start the day after yesterday’s announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent came in less aggressive than feared and increased expectations that the U.S. will seek to escalate economically rather than militarily, potentially translating to less risk of longer-term damage to supply in the region. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi also noted that “significant progress” had been made in negotiations between the two sides, supporting ideas that these measures could act as a restart for more notable peace talks, though harsh rhetoric from Iranian officials do contrast with this. Nearby WTI is down 3.4% this morning, trading near $82.10, while nearby Brent is down 3.0%, trading near $87.80. Meanwhile, the ags are lower almost across the board despite a largely more bullish than expected USDA Crop Progress report after yesterday’s close.
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