Arlan Suderman on What a Record Harvest Means for Fuel Demand
In Episode 13 of Focus on Fuels, StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan brought in Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, to help unpack what a massive harvest could mean for diesel, propane, and fuel buyers across the Midwest.
To sign up for the Focus on Fuels podcast, find it on your preferred podcast platform: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube.
Key Takeaways:
- Corn and soybeans are on track for a record harvest, with wheat also strong
- China’s retreat from U.S. soybeans reshapes grain flow and storage dynamics
- Propane demand may rise if fall weather turns cold or disease pressures mount
Diesel Use Will Rise with Rising Crop Yields
Suderman said this fall’s harvest could be one of the largest on record. Corn and soybeans are up, and wheat is also strong. That means more combines, more trucks, and more diesel. The western Corn Belt – especially the Dakotas and Minnesota – is leading. But the east is trailing, which flips the usual pattern and creates storage problems in the northwest. That, in turn, means more hauling.
China’s Pullback Adds to the Pileup
Soybean exports are down. China hasn’t booked any new U.S. soybeans, and Brazil is meeting more of its demand. With no trade deal in place, soybeans are going into storage. Rail bids in the northwest have dried up, which lowers rail fuel demand. But that grain still has to move, and it’s now heading south and east by truck.
Propane Outlook Depends on Weather
Propane demand for crop drying could swing either way. If the fall is warm, farmers might let crops dry in the field. But if disease weakens corn stalks, they’ll harvest early to avoid loss, and that means more drying and more propane. “The farmer’s going to be trying to reduce his costs,” Suderman said, especially with today’s low prices.
Dive Deeper and Access StoneX Energy Insights
For in-depth analysis on global energy markets, subscribe to the KC Energy Newsletter from StoneX. This expert commentary series offers daily highlights, market forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and price analysis across crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids - crafted to help you navigate one of the most complex sectors in global markets.
Sign Up Here
---Written by: Andrew Catsimanes, Copywriter
---Experts: Alex Hodes, Director of Energy Market Strategy and Trevor McClanahan, Energy Risk Manager
---Experts: Guest: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
