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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

June 24 – Stock futures bounced modestly overnight, following sharp losses in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring developments out of the Middle East while positioning for tomorrow’s pile of economic data, including the latest PCE inflation numbers. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades at fresh 13-month highs near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16% as the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil prices are trading at fresh 16-week lows near $70 per barrel, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were modestly higher as a rule overnight.

The “fog of war” continues between Iran and the United States, with the two parties giving very different accounts of what has been agreed to thus far. That’s largely because both parties must worry about how their stakeholders view the agreement, and both sides also are trying to shape public opinion on the other side. President Trump wants to shape public opinion here in the States ahead of the midterm elections, but he also wants the people of Iran to see the United States as their savior so to speak, saving them from the brutality of the Revolutionary Guard. On the other hand, the Revolutionary Guard wants build distrust of President Trump into the minds of voters here in the States, while also projecting an image back home that it remains fully in control and not weakened at all by the war.

The truth has big implications, not only for the stability of the region, but also for the commodity sector. So, what do we know? First, we know that the shooting has largely stopped. It could start again at any time, but for now it has stopped. Ships are moving again, at an increasing pace. The range of estimates on the volume of oil, product, and other freight moving out of the Persian Gulf varies tremendously, largely because some ships are still transiting the region with their transponders turned off, indicating the amount of fear and uncertainty that is still present. But it looks like several dozen ships per day are now passing through the Strait. That’s a tremendous improvement, but it is still well below the 80 to 130 ships per day that passed through the Strait pre-war. Part of that is because most of the flow currently is ships heading out of the Strait, with a much smaller number heading into the Persian Gulf to pick up loads. Restoring economic activity means restoring the flow of ships in both directions. It’s one thing to release the hundreds of ships containing cargo that were previously trapped in the Persian Gulf. That provides a surge of product to the world. But the bigger indicator will be when we see a surge of ships returning to the Gulf for crude oil and other products to keep that supply flowing.

The United States has control of frozen Iranian assets. Iran can only access those assets if the United States chooses to release them. The White House says that it also has control of oil revenue flowing from the sale of Iranian oil, but that cannot yet be confirmed. The Trump Administration says that Iranian assets are being released via the purchase of food and medicine for the people of Iran. That cannot be confirmed yet either, but that message is flowing consistently from a number of sources within the White House. The consistency and persistence of the message gives it some credibility. The Trump Administration insists that the resources will be used for, among other things, the purchase of U.S. Ag commodities to feed the people of Iran. Iran purchased 18 million metric tons of corn, soybeans and wheat – mostly corn from Brazil – in 2025. Iran hasn’t made any meaningful purchases of Ag commodities from the United States since 2018, and it has little desire to do so now. As such, any confirmation of ships loading with U.S. Ag commodities for Iran would provide confirmation of the White House’s statements.

Here’s the bottom line for U.S. Ag commodities. Seasonally, this is a time when they tend to come under pressure in the absence of any notable weather threat. The weather forecasts currently look quite favorable for the bulk of the Midwest corn and soybean belt over the coming weeks. That could change at any point, but they currently favor good yields. We have a strong biofuel program supporting record demand for soybean oil, and thus strong soybean crush through the summer, and through the next marketing year for that matter. But that’s not enough to cause us to run out of soybeans. We have a strong corn export program, and that will likely continue into next year as well. But that too is not sufficient to cause us to run out of corn over the coming year, based on what we currently know. But in both cases, the market is assuming no sales to Iran, and somewhat limited sales to China – below what it has promised. There’s good reason for that. Iran doesn’t want to buy from us, and China doesn’t have a good track record for keeping its promises for buying U.S. commodities. But what if the United States does use Iranian funds to buy U.S. commodities for the Iranian people as it says, and what if China does keep its promise to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans and $17 billion in other Ag commodities? That would dramatically change the balance sheets. Unfortunately, we probably won’t know if either will happen for several months.

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This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 24

June 24 – Stock futures bounced modestly overnight, following sharp losses in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring developments out of the Middle East while positioning for tomorrow’s pile of economic data, including the latest PCE inflation numbers. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades at fresh 13-month highs near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16% as the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil prices are trading at fresh 16-week lows near $70 per barrel, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were modestly higher as a rule overnight.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
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  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 23

June 23 – The tech sector came under heavy pressure again overnight, as investors worry about AI once again in the ebb and flow of market sentiment on the topic. The selloff was strong enough to push the VIX back above 20 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.3 – a new 13-month high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.49%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%. WTI crude oil prices put in a new low for the move overnight, trading as low as $72.48 per barrel, although they’ve recovered roughly a dollar since, while Brent trades near $77 per barrel as oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz increases. Wheat prices were again under pressure overnight, while corn and soybean prices posted modest gains.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
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  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 22

June 22 – Stock futures were generally steady to firmer to start the week, with investors viewing U.S. / Iran negotiations with cautious optimism. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index remains strong near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, as the curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. Wheat prices were modestly weaker this morning, while soybeans followed soybean oil higher. However, the stronger dollar provided headwinds for much of the complex this morning.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
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