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The June USDA report may have set the tone for grain markets, but traders are already looking beyond it. With weather risks still evolving and uncertainty surrounding final planting decisions, the June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks report could become the next major catalyst for corn and soybean prices.
Global protein supplies remain constrained, but beef markets are entering a period where trade access may matter more than underlying demand. As major exporters approach Chinese import thresholds, competition for alternative buyers could become a more important pricing driver than supply scarcity itself.
The Iran ceasefire has triggered a sharp commodity selloff, but the physical constraints on energy supply make the market repricing look premature. For producers and end users, the same price break creates opposite risk exposures that demand different hedging responses.
Daily coffee report
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
A US-Iran ceasefire has sent crude oil prices to a three-month low, stripping out the risk premium that had accumulated during the conflict. Expanded pipeline capacity and rising non-OPEC production mean markets may tip into oversupply well before Strait of Hormuz flows return to pre-war levels.
June 15 – A peace deal has been reached with Iran. Stock futures gapped higher as a result, while commodity prices came under pressure. And oh yes, it’s also Fed week on Wall Street. The VIX traded near 16, while the dollar index traded below 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.04%. WTI crude oil prices traded to a three-month low, probing below $80 per barrel at one point early this morning, while Brent dropped below $83 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets followed the energy markets lower as well on the news.
Falling energy prices and easing inflation concerns are prompting investors to rethink the outlook for interest rates. However, with major central banks meeting this week, markets may be underestimating the gap between improving sentiment and policymakers' willingness to declare victory over inflation.
VIX traders remain calm as Wall Street shrugs off Middle East tensions. USD longs surge while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures remain bullish.
Dollar to Reflect Interest Rate Decisions in Brazil and the US, As Well As Expectations for Middle East Peace Agreement
As the probability of El Niño increases, governments, businesses and agricultural producers are being forced to reassess their preparedness for weather-related disruptions. The discussion highlights why climate forecasts have value not because they predict certainty, but because they provide time to prepare for a wider range of possible outcomes.
New World Screwworm has returned to the United States after decades of absence, landing in a cattle market already stretched by historically high beef prices and tight supply. Ben Klieve of Benchmark Institutional maps the cost pressures, movement restrictions, and structural risks now facing both beef and dairy producers.
Singapore's bunker fuel market handles hundreds of ship refueling daily, and the signals coming from its inventory levels are beginning to flash warnings across global trade. As refineries deprioritize marine fuel in favor of higher-margin products, the knock-on effects for shipping costs, dry bulk trade and supply chain reliability are becoming harder to ignore.
India's corn production surpassed 55 million tons for the first time on record, but a fast-expanding domestic ethanol sector is absorbing that surplus before it reaches export markets. For the Asian importers that once drew on Indian supply, and for U.S. corn exporters already running at record volumes, the direction of India's biofuel mandate matters more than its output number.
We are facing the convergence of multiple, market-based storm heads over the coming week as enthusiasm over SpaceX IPO meets US-Iran deal headlines and a very controversial FOMC decision.
With Iran and the United States exchanging ceasefire frameworks that describe two entirely different agreements, commodity markets face a supply repair timeline that extends far beyond any signed document. The Strait of Hormuz risk for energy and fertilizer will not be resolved by a memorandum of understanding.
Daily coffee report
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
June 12 - The SpaceX debut was all the talk on Wall Street, as early trade pushed it above a $2 trillion valuation. Additional optimism for a weekend truce with Iran also lifted stocks, along with recent favorable earnings reports and economic data. Pakistan's Prime Minister says we have an agreement. The VIX dropped below 19 at midday, while the dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.48%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets traded mostly lower overnight, but they've spent most of the day session thus far posting modest gains.
The Bank of Japan faces an increasingly difficult balancing act as USD/JPY approaches levels that have previously triggered intervention concerns. With U.S. dollar strength remaining intact and policy divergence still favoring the greenback, currency markets are approaching a critical inflection point.
June 12 – The ebb and flow of whether we have a deal with Iran or not continues, while Wall Street demonstrates that it wants to believe the positive at a time when earnings reports and much of the economic data point upward, despite some risks. Stock futures pushed higher on that optimism over a possible end to the war with Iran, along with enthusiasm over today’s highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 19, while the dollar index traded near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.48%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. Money generally flowed out of both the energy and food-based commodities overnight on Iran peace prospects. WTI crude oil prices fell to an eight-week low overnight and are now trading near $85 per barrel, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly lower as well.
Bitcoin is stabilizing near a major technical support level, but the bigger challenge may be happening beneath the surface. As institutional demand weakens and competing investment opportunities emerge, liquidity conditions could become the deciding factor for Bitcoin's next major move.
The anticipated public listings of OpenAI and Anthropic would be the first time investors can scrutinize the actual cost of building and running frontier AI models. Yi Fu Lee of Benchmark StoneX explains what disclosure would change and which parts of the AI ecosystem are already signaling real demand.
With OpenAI and Anthropic preparing for public markets, the financial opacity that has defined frontier AI investing is about to end. The same profitability metrics that govern every public software company will now apply to the firms commanding the sector's highest valuations.
When demand for a new stock runs four times the available supply, the price retail investors see is already shaped by a market running in the background. Alex Ridgers of StoneX explains the pre-market mechanics that determine where IPOs actually open and who gets in.
Daily coffee report
Global fertilizer markets defied every supply warning this season, absorbing a Strait of Hormuz closure, halted Chinese exports, and reduced European production without a single reported shortage. The hidden buffer was not logistics or policy resilience but a quiet, widespread decision by farmers around the world to apply less nitrogen when prices pushed too high.
Gold prices are under pressure as Federal Reserve expectations remain restrictive despite signs that inflation may be moderating. The market's focus is shifting from inflation data alone to the broader interest rate outlook, creating a challenging backdrop for precious metals.
Rising oil prices are becoming a bigger concern for investors as geopolitical tensions threaten to reignite inflation pressures. The latest developments in the Middle East highlight how energy markets can quickly reshape the outlook for equities and interest rates.
June 11 - Stocks traded mixed this morning as investors remained cautious ahead of tonight's possible military offensive against Iran after a threat of such this morning from President Trump. The VIX is trading near 21 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 100.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $91 per barrel, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. Corn and wheat prices came under modest pressure ahead of this morning's USDA WASDE crop report, while wheat prices found modest support.
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Gold and silver are showing deeply oversold momentum, but the recovery case still depends on reclaiming key resistance levels. Without a sustained move back above former support zones, precious metals may remain vulnerable to another leg lower.
June 11 – Iran-related headlines are again moving the markets this morning, along with more inflation related data that was released. Stock futures are mostly higher to start the day, while the VIX is also elevated to trade near 21. The dollar index is trading near 100.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14% as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten on rising inflation concerns. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower overnight.
Market leadership may be entering a new phase as investors reassess where future returns will come from. Rising scrutiny of AI spending plans is shifting attention from growth narratives toward profitability, capital discipline and new opportunities elsewhere in the market.
When speculative funds liquidate grain positions at scale, prices can fall fast enough to open a brief buying window that commercial end users are built to exploit. The latest selloff in corn and soybean markets produced exactly that, pulling Chicago Board of Trade prices to technical targets and drawing immediate physical demand from buyers in the U.S. and Brazil.
Four major disruptions clustered within four years have forced governments worldwide to replace efficiency with resilience as the organizing principle of global trade. Vincent Deluard, StoneX Group Director of Global Macro Strategy, argues the global economy is now fragmenting into competing economic blocs, with Europe facing the most precarious position of all.
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Webinars|North America|Language: English
June 16 - June 25, 2026
3:00-4:30 p.m. ET
We're thrilled to invite you to the Basic Natural Gas Hedging Virtual Workshop, running from June 16 to June 25, 2026 with six 90-minute sessions. This comprehensive event will cover everything from futures contracts and options to strategic hedging examples. Perfect for professionals eager to deepen their understanding of natural gas market dynamics and technical analysis.
Third party events|Europe|Language: English
June 16 - June 17, 2026
Copenhagen, Denmark
StoneX Payments will be attending the Euro Banking Association Day 2026 in Copenhagen, June 16-17.
Visit the team at Stand E53 to explore how our payments expertise supports financial institutions operating across complex and emerging markets, including:
Third party events|North America|Language: English
June 18, 2026
Washington, D.C.
StoneX Payments is proud to sponsor the Society for International Development Annual Conference.
We look forward to engaging with the global development and NGO community on cross border payments.
Visit our booth to connect and share how secure, efficient payment solutions support critical missions worldwide.
StoneX events|North America|Language: English
June 23 - June 25, 2026
Whitestown, IN
Join us for this interactive program focused on managing and taking advantage of market volatility using proven price risk management strategies.
You’ll gain a solid foundation of grain merchandising, cash, futures, options, and OTC markets, and will leave with a better understanding of the following topics:
Third party events|Europe|Language: English
June 25 - June 27, 2026
Brussels, Belgium
The StoneX Coffee team will be at World of Coffee Brussels to discuss how we help coffee businesses manage price risk, navigate volatility and make more informed decisions across the value chain, June 25-27.
Stop by Booth 11402 to explore how our market intelligence and CoffeeNetwork platform support smarter day-to-day pricing and purchasing decisions.
Webinars||Language: English
June 29 - July 02, 2026
Time Varies Based on Session
Stay ahead of global dairy markets with StoneX’s upcoming virtual Global Dairy Market Outlook.
This one-hour webinar series delivers timely, region-by-region insight into the supply and demand forces shaping global dairy prices. Each session is tailored by language and time zone, giving you a clearer view of market direction and the potential pricing implications ahead.
Webinars||Language: English
June 30, 2026
2:00 - 3:00 p.m. CT
The June 30 reports are often pivot points for market direction changes, and a lot has happened since farmers were surveyed regarding their planting intentions in March.
In this quarterly edition, Arlan will focus on:
Third party events|Europe|Language: English
July 04 - July 05, 2026
London, United Kingdom
StoneX are proud to be the official partner of RunThroughs Women’s Run Series 5K, 10K & Half Marathon on 4th July 2026!
Together, we’re empowering women to run stronger, go further and break new boundaries.
Join us for an unforgettable morning of running, community and achievement at Battersea Park.
Webinars|North America|Language: English
July 07, 2026
9:00 - 10:00 a.m. ET
In this quarterly webinar series, Vincent will provide his perspective and analysis on the most hot-button issues across the most prominent global industries that could help your business thrive in very volatile markets.
Join us on July 7 for a lively discussion between Vincent Deluard and Nancy Davis (Quadratic Capital Management) about The Second Wave of Inflation, focusing on the following topics:
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