By: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
In February 2026, AUD/JPY has advanced to a 35-year high, pressing into major historical resistance near the 110 level. The powerful rally from April’s low has unfolded with very limited retracement, creating increasingly stretched technical conditions. As of this week, price action is stalling just above the prior spring high from 1991, a level that long term market participants are closely monitoring. That combination of breakout and hesitation leaves AUD/JPY vulnerable to a shift in momentum at a critical inflection point.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at FOREX.com, has extensive experience analysing multi timeframe technical structures across global foreign exchange markets. His work focuses on identifying exhaustion signals and reversal formations at structural highs, giving him a distinct perspective on when breakouts transition into potential bull traps, particularly in major currency pairs such as AUD/JPY.
AUDJPY has pushed above a 35-year range high, yet the breakout is showing signs of strain at historic resistance. Simpson cautions that "it's not that often you see prices simply break above a prior spring high like that, especially on the monthly timeframe", underscoring the rarity of sustained moves beyond such long-term barriers. The swift move back beneath the previous high following the breakout suggests late bullish positioning may already be under pressure. Consequently, AUD/JPY faces elevated bull trap risk if buyers fail to defend the breakout zone in the sessions ahead.
AUD/JPY weekly price action is now reinforcing downside risk through visible reversal formations. Simpson identifies "two bearish reversal called dark cloud cover" and describes the structure as "a bit of a bull trap", confirming a shift in sentiment at the cycle high. On the daily timeframe, bearish divergence into the 110 handle adds further evidence that upside momentum is fading after four consecutive up days. As a result, AUD/JPY could rotate into an ABC style correction toward the monthly pivot near 107 and the 106 to 106.50 support cluster if bullish momentum does not reassert control.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst, FOREX.com
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only.
StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs.
This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity.
The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice.
Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced.
This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.
StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity.
StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate.
This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Support in the U.S. dollar index is being defined by where volume has traded, not by round numbers on a chart. Matt Simpson breaks down the high volume nodes, congestion zones and narrow range bars that mark where selling pressure ran out.
A single support zone can carry more weight than a dozen individual chart levels when several independent signals land in the same area. Michael Boutros works through how that stacking effect shapes the euro dollar recovery and where the structure would genuinely fail.
Australian business and consumer confidence deteriorate as RBA hike expectations fuel concerns over rates, jobs and household spending.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
