Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
In our Bitcoin Q3 outlook, we noted that “the path of least resistance will remain to the topside for a potential rally to the Fibonacci extensions of this year’s drop near $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%).” As it turns out, we didn’t have to wait long for Bitcoin to hit that initial target in mid-July, but the cryptocurrency lost its momentum, spending the rest of the quarter consolidating in the $110Ks.
Below, we break down the outlook for the king of the cryptocurrencies and highlight relevant fundamental and technical trends that will drive Bitcoin in the last quarter of the year.
Many analysts have identified a reliable 4-year cycle centered around the Bitcoin Halving that suggests we may be nearing the end of a nearly 3-year bullish period.
For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Halving is when the reward for mining new bitcoins is cut in half. This reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created and thus, lowers the total supply of new bitcoins coming into the market. The halving tends to increase scarcity and historically has led to an increase in the price of bitcoin, though of course it's not guaranteed to do so in the future. As any Bitcoin bull will tell you, the April 2024 halving took the “inflation rate” of Bitcoin’s supply to below 1% per year, less than half of gold’s annual inflation rate.
Looking at my favorite chart, which I colloquially call “The Only Bitcoin Chart You'll Ever Need™”, previous Bitcoin halvings have marked the transition from the (yellow) post-bottom recovery rally stage to the (green) full-blown bull market stage that we’ve been in since April of last year.
Projecting a similar time-based cycle forward from the halving suggests that we may be nearing the peak of the cycle near the start of Q4, though with increasing institutional adoption and general maturation of the asset class, some analysts are skeptical that the 4-year cycle will remain valid moving forward:
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
While the simple 4-year cycle may be waving a yellow flag for Q4, there are both macroeconomic and “fundamental” bullish arguments for Bitcoin that suggest we may not have seen the top for this cycle yet (or even if the concept of large boom-bust cycles are still relevant).
From a macroeconomic perspective, the monetary policy backdrop remains generally supportive, though we may be nearing peak easing globally. As the chart below shows, global central banks have still been cutting interest rates generally, but we have seen that trend stalling in recent months, with major central banks like the ECB expected to stop cutting (but not necessarily raise) interest rates in the coming months:
Source: MacroMicro
Looking ahead, the risk that central banks shift focus back to the risks of re-accelerating inflation may develop into a potential headwind for Bitcoin in the latter half of the year, especially with fiscal policy (government spending and tax cuts) becoming more accommodative across the globe.
In that vein, the growth rate fiat money in the financial system has turned to a more stimulative direction. So-called “M2” is central banks’ estimate of the total money supply, including all the cash people have on hand, plus all the money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short-term saving vehicles such as certificates of deposit (CDs).
After falling to around 1% in the first half of 2024, the year-over-year growth in global money supply has re-accelerated over the last few months and is holding steady at 6% as we go to press:
Source: TradingView, StoneX.
One of the key narratives driving Bitcoin’s value is the idea of “hard money” or a hedge against fiat currency debasement, and as long as the global supply of money continues to increase, that theme could put a floor under the cryptocurrency’s price.
Beyond broad macroeconomic dynamics, we’ve also increasingly seen large financial entities accumulating Bitcoin at an increasing rate. In addition to the growing popularity of firms accumulating the cryptocurrency as a treasury asset, we’ve also seen impressive inflows from “TradFi” institutional investors buying spot Bitcoin ETFs, with total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs now nearing $60B:
Source: Farside Investors
As long as we continue to see the secular trend of “TradFi” ETF purchases continuing in the coming months, downside dips in Bitcoin may be more limited than they have in the past.
Over a longer-term horizon, there are plenty of indicators that suggest we may still be some distance away, in both time and price, from a cycle top in Bitcoin.
From a valuation perspective, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the aggregate cost paid for all outstanding Bitcoin, sits near 2.0, up from the < 1 level that has historically marked bear market bottoms in early 2023 but down from above 3 as of late December 2024.
However, as the chart below shows, previous cycle tops haven’t formed until this indicator reaches levels above 7, suggesting that we may still have further to rally before reaching a cycle top (though given Bitcoin’s limited historic record, it’s important to remember that the current cycle may not necessarily match previous patterns):
Source: Bitcoin Magazine. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
A final consideration is the behavior of long-term holders. As we’ve noted in previous outlooks, those who have held their Bitcoin for more than a year, almost tautologically, are not trying to make a “quick buck” off the cryptocurrency; rather they are more likely to be “true believers” or “HODLers” who are unlikely to sell unless they’re sitting on a truly massive gain.
As the chart below shows, the proportion of Bitcoin that has been held for at least a year started 2024 at record highs above 70% before seeing a notable decline to below 61% as of writing. While that -9% drop may seem relatively small, it represents nearly 1.8M in marginal Bitcoin supply, weighing on the Bitcoin price. This measure, by definition, moves relatively slowly, but any renewed selling from longer-term “HODLers” may offset inflows into ETFs as we move through into the fourth quarter of this year:
Source: MacroMicro.me
Of course, the catalysts we highlight in this report may not play out as expected – and to some extent, they may already be priced in, so readers should always exercise caution when trading Bitcoin and other cryptoassets. As ever, it will be critical to monitor a broad swath of macroeconomic and crypto-specific metrics as the year develops.
Source: TradingView, StoneX
Looking at the longer-term chart, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $110K range as we go to press. The cryptocurrency has seen volatility die down after an impressive Q2 rally off Q1’s -30%+ pullback. Crucially, even in the depths of that pullback, Bitcoin managed to hold above the 50-week EMA, a dynamic support level that has consistently put a floor under prices for more than two years. At the same time, the 14-week RSI has consistently held above 45, providing a potential leading/confirming measure for the uptrend’s strength as we head into Q4.
Moving forward, as long as the cryptocurrency holds above the 50-week EMA (currently near $100K), the path of least resistance will remain to the topside for a potential rally to the Fibonacci extensions of this year’s drop near $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%). Only a break back below the 50-day EMA and horizontal support near $74K would flip the longer-term trend to neutral.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
The Australian dollar enters Q3 with the market's focus shifting away from geopolitics and back towards monetary policy and economic data - what will that mean for AUD/USD in H2?
The balance of risks continues to favour USD/JPY upside, although the path higher is unlikely to be a straight line - read on for more details!
Crude oil prices have retraced sharply toward pre-war levels, falling more than 40% from their yearly highs - what does the second half of the year have in store?
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
