El Niño Expected to Continue for the Next Several Seasons, ENSO-Neutral Favored April-June CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The latest forecast from NOAA notes that above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest anomalies observed in the central and east-central Pacific. The latest weekly Niño index values remained at +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.9°C in Niño-3.4, and +2.0°C in Niño-3, while Niño-1+2 weakened to +1.0°C. Area-averaged positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased in December, reflecting the strengthening and eastward expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures in the western Pacific. Over the east-central Pacific Ocean, low-level wind anomalies were westerly, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly. Convection/rainfall remained enhanced at the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia. The equatorial and station-based SOI were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strong and mature El Niño.
The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024. Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral. It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April. In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).
Alexis Rubinstein
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