CONAB Pegs Brazil’s 2024-2025 Coffee Crop at 58.08 Million Bags CoffeeNetwork (New York) – CONAB has published their first forecast for Brazil’s 2024-2025 coffee crop, pegging total production at 58.08 million bags, 5.5% higher than the 2023 production. The report points out that the 2021 and 2022 harvests, due to weather adversities, had low productivity, impacting yields. But in 2023, with more favorable weather conditions, the recovery phase of productivity began.
Arabica production is estimated at 40.75 million bags, up 4.7% year on year; Robusta production should total 17.33 million bags, up 7.2% year on year.
The total area destined for coffee growing in the country in 2024 is 2.25 million hectares, with an increase of 0.8% over the previous harvest. This area encompasses 1.92 million hectares of crops that are in production, which show a growth of 2.4% compared to the previous year, and another 336.3 thousand hectares that are under formation, which in turn had a reduction of 7% compared to the same period.
For the national average coffee yield, the first estimate indicates a volume of 30.3 bags per hectare, about 3% higher than the previous harvest. The productivity of arabica coffee is estimated at 26.7 scs/ha, an increase of 2% compared to the 2023 harvest, and that of conilon coffee at 44.3 scs/ha, 6.2% above the previous harvest.
In terms of production by state, Minas Gerais shows an estimated volume of 29.18 million bags, an increase of 0.6% compared to the total harvested in the previous harvest, justified by the increase in the area under production and, mainly, by the positive biennial cycle, in addition to the better conditions of the crops. In Espírito Santo, there is also an expectation of growth of 15.4% in total, forecast at 15.01 million bags. The Espirito Santo crop encompasses both conilon coffee, which has an estimated value of 11.06 million bags, an increase of 9% compared to the previous harvest, and the arabica species, whose production is expected to be 3.95 million bags, 38.2% above the volume harvested in the last harvest.
Other increases are pointed out in São Paulo, where a production of 5.40 million bags of the Arabica species is expected, with a growth of 7.4% compared to the result obtained in 2023; in Bahia, where the increase of 6.4% should provide 3.61 million bags throughout the state; and in Rondônia, whose volume is estimated at 3.19 million bags of conilon coffee, an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous harvest. Production is also on the rise in Rio de Janeiro, Mato Grosso and Goiás. Only in Paraná, with predominantly Arabica coffee cultivation, the forecast is for stability.
Alexis Rubinstein
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