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Daily Coffee Report - 01/18/2024

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New York Coffee Ends Higher. London Lagging Behind

 

Arabica coffee futures recovered from early losses to close higher on  volatile session. The most active contract for March delivery settled 75 points higher at 179.95 trading in 175.55 / 182.35 range. The market was under pressure early as the first estimate of the 2024-25 Brazil crop by a government agency came with a larger than expected figure. However, good support near the lows made participants to reverse positions. The 175 level offered good support at the beginning of December, from which prices were driven into an upward movement in which they reached above 200. At the same time, near oversold conditions discouraged further selling. The CONAB report pegging the 2024 Brazil’s output at 58.08 million 60-kg bags , 5,5 %  higher than 2023 output, could have been interpreted as an early indication of better expectations for the crop. The low CONAB figure did not cause a major impact among operators who expect estimates from private entities with experience and deep knowledge of the producing areas of Brazil. Certified stocks decreased 3,530 bags to 263,810. Pending grading increased by 1,281 bags to 45,051. Graded today a total of 9,407: 5,760 bags passed and 3,647 bags fails.

Robusta Mar24 contract settled at $3063 -93 or 2.95% lower, with a 3056/3142 range. Flat price struggling to hold onto Tuesdays gains, new longs are seen liquidating into light commercial buying. Nearby structure has also weakened with Mar/may seeing a 164/190 range on 4k lots. Outright volumes are back to normal levels with 11k lots trading on the most liquid Mar24 contract. Robusta Mar24 3000/3150 callspread vs 3082Δ18 traded 1500x @ 70, Robusta May24 3200/3000 (2x1) callspread vs sell 2892Δ12 traded 1000x @ 23.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.9422 +0.13%

USDCOP 3921.8 -0.85 %

[email protected]    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

49,959

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

25,039

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

879

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Related tags: Coffee

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