Coffee Advances Strongly
Arabica coffee futures closed with strong gains on fresh buying as index fund selling to rebalance positions comes to an end. The most active contract for March delivery closed 710 points or 3.8% higher at 192.25 cents per pound. Once again, concerns about possible short-term shortages were noted among traders. The near switch for March/May under backwardation conditions gaining 140 points today to end at 4.70 cents. As we mentioned on Friday, the market shifted to backwardation for the second position May/July as well, an early indication the tightness could persist for the Q2. Last Friday’s COT showed index funds decreased longs by 4,435 lots. The previous week, they sold 5,061 lots so we can expect the rebalance has come to an end. At the same point non-commercials added 4,074 lots to the net long position. Funds have been putting money on commodities. According with The StoneX Commodity Tracker, $1.0 billion was poured in the soft complex last week. Sugar advanced 7.99 %, Cocoa 5.7% and Coffee 2.53% and Cotton 3.09%. Cert stocks increased by 870 bags to 253,978 bags. Pending grading decreased 663 bags to 38,399 bags. A total of 10,903 bags were graded. Passed 1145 (BR 320, HON 825). Failed 9,758 (BR 9,280, 478 HON) .
Robusta Mar24 contract settled at $3220 +92 or 2.94% higher, with a 3099/3229 range. A rally largely off the back of the continued issues in major shipping routes through the Red sea. This is causing nearby structure to firm (Mar/May seeing a 153/199 range on 1.7k lots) which is triggering speculative buying into a total lack of natural seller. As a result, buying hits vacuums of liquidity causing flat price to print a new high. Volumes reflect this theory with outright volume very much on the low side, only 7.1k lots trading on the Mar24 contract. Robusta Jul24 2600 puts vs 2870Δ26 traded 1500x @ 101.5 avrg.
At the time of writing
USDBRL 4.9910 +1.21%
USDCOP 3904.7 -0.35 %
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
57,7457
ICE Robusta
Volume:
18,605
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
1,609
Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
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