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Daily Coffee Report - 01/23/2024

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Market Ends with Little Change

 

Arabica coffee futures closed mixed on Tuesday as the market consolidates after the recent rally. The most active contract for March delivery settled 70 points higher at 192.95 cents a pound while the May contract settled 55 points lower at 187.00 cents. All back position settled lower. The market structure enlarged the backwardation for the front and second positions reflecting a possible shortage that could extend until the Q2. After some early selling, the market bounced from the support at 188.50 price level. The structures provided additional support. The Mar/May gained 125 points to end at 5.95 cents premium and the May/July gained 40 points to end at 1.20 cents premium. Origin selling began to be more noticeable as we approach the March delivery. The market inverted (backwardation) for the second position maybe an early indication the shortage could extend. Origin selling began to be noticeable. Cert stocks increased by 1915 bags to 255,893. Pending grading added 11,543 bags to 49,942 bags. A total of 8960 bags were graded today.  4480 passed and 4480 failed. Yesterday, 89% of the coffees presented for grading failed. Sources indicate Brazil coffee plantations are seeing good foliage but low cherry counts. Participants remain waiting for updated reports that should circulate soon.

Robusta Mar24 contract settled at $3182 -38 with a 3233/3172 range. Some follow through buying allowing flat price to print a new high however no strong follow through causing the market to close lower. Limited activity from both specs and commercial players today with not a great deal of notable activity. Roasters were seen buying small quantities scale down, no origin selling at these levels. Structure certainly played a role in the lack of enthusiasm in flat price. Mar/May saw a 155/190 range on 3.8k lots, plenty of CSO activity highlights below: Robusta CSO Mar24/Jul24 250 put traded 2000x @ 20, Robusta CSO May24/Jul 80 put traded 2000x @ 15, Robusta Mar24/May 140 put traded 2000x @ 15, Robusta Mar24 2900/3100 callspread vs 3190Δ20 traded 2000x @ 143

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.9540 -0.72%

USDCOP 3953.9 +1.19%

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ICE Arabica

Volume:

61,093

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

27,332

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

587

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Related tags: Coffee

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