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Daily Coffee Report - 01/29/2024

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Coffee Futures Settled Mixed.

 

Arabica coffee futures give back some gains added by the new longs from Friday, the main contract Mar24 settled 460 points lower at 189.25 cents per pound. The volume continues moderate with 45,020 total lots including 13,091 switches. The Mar/May switch lost 120 points with a settlement at 3.20 and a daily range of 3.10/4.90. Market held above support area of 185/188 amid a firm dollar, and a weaker Colombian Peso and Brazilian real. StoneX is currently conducting the second part of their Brazilian crop tour, the findings will be combined with the previous tour from last month, and a full report will be published within a few weeks. Brazil’s Carnaval takes place next month from February 9th to the 14th. Arabica certified stocks decreased 5,741 bags to 243,465. Pending grading increased by 8,290 bags to 81,998.

Another erratic session observed through the Robusta terminal as the overbought conditions fails to deter buyers encouraging further narrowing of the arbitrage. Dynamics remain unchanged as ongoing issues in the red sea and a complicated physical scenario in Asia forces March24 based structure to hold a heavy premium. This is unlikely to change before notice period as certified stock levels have not moved materially prompting most participants wagering bets that the arbitrage will near 30 cents over the course of February. Some of the more short term technically players will be wary of todays failure to generate momentum above the previous high and in turn leaves a doji start formation. Under normal circumstances this would tend to signal a reversal, but most would require confirmation in the form of a settlement below $3240 basis March24.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.9423 +0.52%

USDCOP 3927.3 +0.43%

[email protected]    

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305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

45,020

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

25,056

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

432

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Related tags: Coffee

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