StonexHero

Daily Coffee Report - 01/30/2024

StonexHero

Coffee Futures Rise

 

Arabica futures closed higher today at the end of a volatile session. The benchmark contract for March delivery settled 475 points higher at 194.00 cents a pound. Volume reached 61,126 lots including 19,972 switches. The nearby active switch attracted good speculative buying ending at 3.75 cents or 55 points higher. The market structure remains with backwardation, from now until July-Sep. The market continues to be helped by the strength in the Robusta market as well as the technical performance. StoneX is currently conducting the final part of their Brazilian crop tour. A crop 2024 forecast will be published within the next few weeks. Activity in Brazil is expected to slow down from February 9 to the 14th as the country celebrates Carnival. We also have the release of Q4 and full year 2023 financial reports for many of the major coffee companies, which should give some light on consumption. In macro factors, the market will be paying attention to the FOMC announcement of the monetary policy decision tomorrow. The Fed is expected to keep federal-funds unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Cert stocks increased by 7,104 bags to 250,569. Pending grading decreased by 15,087 bags to 66,911 bags.  A total of 17,967 were graded.  Passed 7,104 (BR 3,500; PE 3,025; IN 284 and NI 275), failed 10,863 (BR 6,720, PE 3,575, IN 568).

Near contract highs registered on the London terminal as underlying factors continue to drive gains into a lack of natural sellers. This comes amid a backdrop of renewed interest from the investment community who recently layered $2 billion into the softs arena, which will be a strategic pay in the broader sector and unlikely to reverse over the near term. Primary focus starts to turn to March management as we approach a new month and near the next notice period with latest commitment of trader data suggesting we are to expect a wide layer of roaster fixation still to come. Technically the market continues to operate in overbought territory but the firm trend strength hold longs into positions with comfort, only a settlement below $3160 basis March24 will break this confidence.   

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.9446 -0.14%

USDCOP 3918.9 -0.28%

[email protected]    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

61,126

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

25,071

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

959

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Related tags: Coffee

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.

 

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

 

© 2024 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.



Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
See why StoneX is a partner of choice
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

  • Partnership icon
    Globality

    With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

  • Price tag
    Transparency

    As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

  • PC Monitor Blue
    Expertise

    From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.

+
!

By submitting this form, you are sending StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries your personal information to be used for marketing purposes. View our  Privacy notice  to learn more.

+
!

By submitting this form, you are sending StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries your personal information to be used for marketing purposes. View our  Privacy notice  to learn more.