Arabica Futures Lower CoffeeNetwork - Arabica prices on the InterContinental Exchange were trading 1.20 lower for the March contract, last seen at 192.85. Volume was heavy with 16,230 contracts at the time of writing. The May contract is trading 1.45 lower at 189.50 with 15,211 contracts.
Arabica futures are lower today in another quiet session. ICE certified stock data showed that yesterday, 20k bags were added to “pending,” bringing the total to 87k bags. This has been one of the largest arrivals of new inventory in quite some time, and there is some market chatter that this may signal the beginning of a new trend. However, the passing rate is still only around 50%, which confirms some quality issues. Technically, March support remains at 190.188.5 with resistance at 192/200. The US dollar is firm today, adding some bullish sentiment to the commodity complex.
Looking ahead, StoneX is currently conducting the second part of their Brazilian crop tour. Their findings will be combined with that of the first crop tour, which took place last month, and a full report with crop forecast will be published within the next few weeks. Additionally, activity from Brazil is expected to be muted when the country celebrates Carnival from February 9 to the 14th. We also have the release of Q4 and full year 2023 financial reports for many of the major coffee companies, which should shed some light on demand.
Robusta futures have turned lower as farmers in Vietnam increase selling before the Tet holiday begins on the 8th.
Commodities are mixed. US-based employers announced plans to cut 82307 jobs in January 2024, the most in ten months, compared to 34817 in December 2023. The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the US rose for a second consecutive week to 224K in the week ended January 27th, the highest reading since mid-November, compared to an upwardly revised 215K in the previous week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US improved to 49.1 in January 2024, the highest since October 2022, from 47.1 in December.
Brent Crude Oil rose 0.98% to 81.34 and Spot Gold Futures also ticked 0.41% higher to 2,047.87.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.17% to 38,213.55 and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was last seen at 484.75, down 0.07%.
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