January 12 - Stocks were mixed this morning ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. The markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Nonetheless, traders are digesting this morning's positive inflation news, as well as rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and in East Asia as we go into the holiday break - see this morning's commentary for details. Coincidentally, we also kicked off earnings season. The VIX is trading below 13, while the dollar index is trading near 102.4, despite a collapse of Treasury yields. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.96%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%. Crude oil prices are 1% higher, while the grain and oilseed markets are responding to today's USDA set of report releases. Today's winter wheat acreage came in well below expectations, but that was largely over-shadowed by much larger than expected increases in the size of last year's U.S. corn and soybean crops, larger than expected quarterly stocks, and a smaller downward adjustment to the Brazilian soybean crop. Where we finish today will have big implications as go into the holiday weekend, with geopolitical risks rising this weekend.
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