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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | WASDE Bearish | Funds Add To Shorts | Ag Oversold

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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook
 
Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @Turners_Take
Podcast: Turner's Take Podcast
Network: LinkedIn
 
WASDE |  The Jan WASDE was bearish for corn and soybeans but supportive for wheat.  Old crop yields and production increased for corn and beans with only minor adjustments for demand.  Winter wheat seedings were 1 million acres less than expected, and is very supportive for SRW wheat.  The markets sold off heavy on Friday but they are very oversold and bouncing back today.
 
Commitment of Traders | Funds were heavy sellers of corn, meal, and soybeans.  Managed money is now only 100K contracts away from being record short, and that does not include the selling after the WASDE was released on Friday.  Funds sold 19K soybeans to get over 30K contracts short.  The funds net sold 32K contract meal and were only long about 10K as of Tuesday, 1/9.
 
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Weather |  Brazil received widespread rains since Friday and forecasts are favorable for precipitation this weekend in and the 6-10 day.  Argentina saw some rains over the weekend but they will be drier this week and into the weekend.  The US Plains are frigid but there is enough snow cover to protect winter wheat.  Temperatures warm up by the weekend and there is more precipitation in the forecast for the 2nd half of January. 
 
MACRO MARKETS |   The US Dollar continues to rally, and the S&P is lower, as Wall Street hedges their bets for a Q1 Fed interest rate cut.  Feb Natural Gas is down 40 cents, which has to be a bitter pill to swallow for the bulls right now.  Temps are freezing across N. America but the forecasts are warming up for late Jan and into Feb.
Related tags: Grains & Oilseeds

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