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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | S. America Weather Getting Drier

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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook
 
Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @CornWheatSoy
GRAINS & OILSEEDS | Weather forecasts in S. America, particularly Argentina, are getting drier. Soybeans and canola are finding support after being in oversold last week.  As we talked about yesterday, the funds are very short for this time of year.  Any real uptick in demand, S. America weather issues, or N. American production issues can cause a short covering rally fairly quickly.  Odds are a short covering rally will be a selling opportunity for the producer.
Ag Canada released there 2024 outlook yesterday with no major surprises.  Acres were close to expectations but demand seemed a little high for canola.  Farm Futures released US acreage intentions and had corn 92.5 million, soybeans 85mm, and spring wheat at 9mm.  If true that would be bearish corn but supportive spring wheat and soybeans, and indirectly supportive for winter wheat and canola too.
The macro markets are fairly quiet. The US Dollar is up on the continued believe the Fed will not lower interest rates in Q1.  Stocks are choppy and so is Crude Oil.  
As far as the Farm Futures survey goes, I was surprised on the lower than expected soybean acres.  I think US farmers are taking a "wait and see" attitude with respect to biodiesel demand and production.  When it comes to all the talk of new soybean and canola crush operations, there is a bit of "if they build it, the acres will come" philosophy out there and farmers need to see the demand for the acres to be planted with soybeans.
 
Related tags: Grains & Oilseeds

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