Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Below Critical Resistance

AUD/USD is trading just below major resistance for an eighth week with the monthly range preserved into July. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie weekly technical chart.

Written by

Michael Boutros

Sr. Technical Strategist

Fri, 27 Jun 2025, 01:37 PM

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AUD/USD marks outside weekly reversal– covers entire monthly range
Aussie June opening-range preserved just below critical resistance- NFPs on tap
Resistance 6511/50 (key), 6671, 6795-6810- Support 6357, 6291-6316 (key), 6163/79

The Australian Dollar is trading just below critical resistance for a second consecutive month with AUD/USD preserving the June opening-range into the close of the quarter. While the broader outlook remains constructive e, the immediate advance is vulnerable while below this key range- we’re on breakout watch into the open of July. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

image-20250627113758-1

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that the AUD/USD was, “is trading just below technical resistance for a fifth consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the June opening-range in the days ahead with the broader April rally vulnerable while below 6550.” The June range is preserved heading into the close of the month with a massive outside-weekly reversal taking Aussie back into key resistance on Friday. Note that momentum is approaching the 60-level for the first time this year and a break higher alongside a breach above 6550 could fuel a substantial rally here- watch the weekly close.

Initial support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed closely by 6290/6315- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level- a break / weekly close below would threaten downtrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at 6162/79.

A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance with key resistance seen at the 2019 lows near 6670. Ultimately a break above the upper parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2024 HWC / yearly open near 6795-6810 and 6900.

Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal has covered the entire monthly range with the Australian Dollar now testing critical resistance for an eighth-consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 needed to fuel the next move.

Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month & quarter on Monday with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap next week. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.