DAX Today: Record High in Sight :What Is Moving the Market

DAX Starts Near Record High

The German stock market enters Friday trading from a constructive starting position. The DAX closed Thursday at around 26,367 points, just below its record high of approximately 26,573 points. As a result, another attempt at the historical highs remains the key technical focus.

For today’s session, however, the most important impulses are once again coming from the international environment. Nvidia’s latest quarterly results and outlook reinforced expectations for continued demand for AI infrastructure. This is providing support particularly for European semiconductor and technology stocks.

At the same time, inflation, bond yields and the monetary policies of the ECB and Fed remain the key counterweights.

Nvidia Provides Tailwind for Technology Stocks

SAP and Infineon were among the strongest performers on Thursday. SAP gained 5.48%, while Infineon rose 3.59%. Automotive stocks BMW and Volkswagen also performed strongly, gaining 3.92% and 3.56%, respectively.

DAX Leaders Thursday

Stock	Performance
SAP	+5.48%
BMW	+3.92%
Infineon	+3.59%
Volkswagen Pref.	+3.56%
Rheinmetall	+3.02%

DAX Laggards Thursday

Stock	Performance
Commerzbank	-2.71%
Deutsche Telekom	-2.56%
MTU Aero Engines	-1.94%
Airbus	-1.36%
Bayer	-1.28%

This highlights a clear rotation toward technology and cyclical stocks. If the US technology rally continues, SAP and Infineon could provide further support for the DAX today.

Interest Rates and Inflation Remain Crucial

The key counterweight to the equity rally remains the direction of interest rates.

The ECB continues to see upside risks to inflation, partly due to energy prices. At the same time, expectations for the future interest-rate path have shifted. Rising yields can support banks but increase valuation pressure on highly valued growth stocks.

For the DAX, this means that falling yields would provide an additional tailwind for equities, while another increase in yields could slow the rally.

Oil prices also remain relevant. Lower energy prices would reduce inflationary pressure and would generally be positive for European equities. A renewed geopolitical escalation, however, could quickly push energy prices and inflation expectations higher.

Germany Shows Cautious Signs of Recovery

The German economy is now showing some positive signals. GDP increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. The Ifo Business Climate Index also improved in August.

The Ifo Employment Barometer additionally rose to its highest level since May 2025. Companies remain cautious about new hiring, but downward pressure on the labor market has eased.

For the DAX, this is relevant because a stabilization of the German and European economy could support corporate earnings expectations.

Jackson Hole in Focus

The most important event of the day is likely to be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Markets will be watching closely for comments on inflation, the labor market and the future interest-rate path. A dovish tone could push US yields lower and provide further support for equities. A hawkish message, by contrast, could trigger profit-taking.

German labor-market data for August will also be in focus today. The unemployment rate is expected to be around 6.4%.

The Week Ahead

With the start of a new month, economic data will become increasingly important.

Monday, August 31: German consumer prices for August and Chinese PMIs. The inflation data will be important for expectations surrounding ECB policy.

Tuesday, September 1: German and European manufacturing PMIs, along with additional inflation and labor-market data. On the corporate side, Nio is among the companies reporting.

Wednesday, September 2: US ADP employment report, factory orders and the Fed Beige Book. In Germany, Bayer Crop Science holds its Investor Day. In the US, Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Snowflake report earnings.

Thursday, September 3: European services PMIs, German vehicle registrations and VDMA factory orders.

Friday, September 4: The US employment report will be the week’s most important global macroeconomic event. German factory orders will also be released.

Outlook

The short-term DAX bias remains slightly bullish. The index is close to its record high, while Nvidia, improving economic signals and stable global equity-market sentiment are providing support.

The key test remains around 26,573 points. A sustained breakout could generate fresh momentum. Another failure at the highs could trigger profit-taking, particularly if bond yields and oil prices rise simultaneously.

For investors, the next major DAX move is therefore likely to be driven less by German corporate reporting and more by the interaction between inflation, interest rates, oil prices and the US labor market.

Philip J Papageorgiou - Head of Investment Research

Philip on X (x twitter) - PhilipForexCom