Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX higher on US-Iran talk progress, Micron Technologies gains

US futures                                          

Dow futures 0.26%, S&P futures 0.79%  & Nasdaq futures 0.5%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.56% & DAX -0.14%

• U.S futures rise, paring earlier losses
• US & Iran hail progress in talks
• Micron Technology jumps on target price increase ahead of this week’s earnings
• Oil falls as supply fears continue to ease

US-Iran Talks Progress and Memory Chip Stocks Gain

U.S. futures are rising on Monday, reversing earlier losses after progress was flagged in weekend peace talks held in Switzerland and as memory chip stocks gain.

Futures had initially fallen by as much as 1% amid fears of renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran after President Trump threatened further strikes and as hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah continued.

However, those fears were quickly calmed after Iran's foreign minister noted major progress in talks held in Switzerland. Meanwhile, statements from Pakistani and Qatari mediators also struck an encouraging tone, with both sides committing to further discussions in the coming days.

The market appears increasingly willing to look through geopolitical headlines and focus on the broader trend of de-escalation. Oil prices remain below $80 a barrel and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, suggesting investors are pricing a gradual normalisation in energy markets rather than a renewed supply shock.

However, a more hawkish Fed could cap the upside. Last week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but nine of 18 policymakers pointed to a rate hike this year. Meanwhile, new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh doubled down on the Fed's 2% inflation target, reinforcing a hawkish bias.

Attention this week will be on the U.S. economy, with PMI data and Core PCE inflation due. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, could provide further insight into the outlook for rates.

Corporate Movers

SpaceX is falling around 5% pre-market, with shares down roughly 13% from their closing high on Tuesday. However, the stock remains around 30% above its IPO price of $135.

Alphabet is falling 2% pre-market after a researcher left Google's AI laboratory for Anthropic on Friday. This comes just days after Google's Vice President of Engineering also announced he was joining OpenAI.

Micron Technology is trading 4.5% higher after receiving price-target upgrades from Bernstein and Needham. Memory chip stocks are among the strongest performers in pre-market trading.

Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq remains in a bullish trend, trading above its rising trendline and the 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs.

The index recovered from the June low around 28,200 near the 50-day SMA and rallied to 30,650 before easing back to current levels around 30,430.

Buyers will look for a move back above 30,650 and 30,700 to bring fresh record highs into focus. Beyond that, 31,000 and 32,000 become the next upside targets.

On the downside, immediate support sits at 30,000, the round number, and the 20-day SMA. A break below here and 29,600, the May 15 swing high, would expose the 50-day SMA near 28,500 and the June low at 28,200. A move below there would create a lower low and open the door towards 26,250 and the 200-day SMA around 25,800.

FX Markets – USD Firms After Hawkish Fed, GBP/USD rises as Starmer resigns

The U.S. dollar has risen to a 13-month high, tracking Treasury yields higher as markets continue to price in tighter monetary policy from the Fed. Attention this week is on U.S. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, for further clues over the outlook for rates.

EUR/USD is weaker owing to U.S. dollar outperformance. Investors have quickly moved past the ECB rate hike, despite expectations for another increase before year-end. However, concerns over the health of the Eurozone economy could limit euro upside. Consumer confidence data is due later today, whilst PMI figures for June are due tomorrow.

GBP/USD has recovered from session lows and is pushing higher towards 1.3240 after Keir Starmer resigned as UK Prime Minister, paving the way for a new leader to take office by early September. Andy Burnham is the favourite, and for now concerns over a shift to the left and higher spending are being brushed aside given the fiscal constraints surrounding UK public finances.

Oil Continues to Fall as U.S. and Iran Talks Progress

Oil prices are falling on Monday after U.S.-Iran talks appeared to make progress over the weekend, easing concerns over supply shortages in global markets.

Brent had initially risen in early trade following President Trump's threat to restart military action and after Tehran announced fresh restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, those gains quickly faded after high-ranking officials wrapped up talks in Switzerland on a positive tone.

Iran has resumed oil exports, while the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq have all offered additional crude to customers over the past week, gradually ramping up supply.

While the initial increase in exports is being driven more by improving logistics and shipping routes than by higher production, the market is increasingly pricing a gradual normalisation of supply. Longer-term gains in exports will depend on a sustained increase in production, with a full restoration of output unlikely this year.