Gold Weekly Outlook

Bond yields pushed higher again on Friday as the consolidation near the upper end of the recent range continued, mirroring the price action of oil prices, posing threat to the gold recovery attempt.

Gold just posted its best week since January, but the breakout now enters the phase that could determine whether a lasting low is finally in place.

Gold has spent six weeks trapped in a tightening range at the yearly low, with the next breakout likely to determine the August outlook.

Gold has been mired in a strong sell-off since the start of the year but sellers haven’t been able to break much fresh ground over the past month. The FOMC rate decision could have a large bearing on whether that changes.

Gold managed to bounce a bit on Friday, although it was too little to prevent a weekly decline. On the week, the metal fell 2.5%, making its second consecutive weekly decline. Though gold again managed to hold its own above the key $4,000 level on a daily and weekly closing basis, the metal was now flat on the month.

Repeated breakdown attempts have failed as gold traders await the inflation catalyst that could finally resolve this month-long battle in XAU/USD.

With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook under the new chairman supporting the dollar, this has been among the reasons why gold has fallen in recent weeks. That’s not to mention the impact of fading haven demand amid the de-escalation of the Middle East tensions, and the loss of prior speculative bullish moment.

A failed breakdown below yearly support is raising the possibility that an exhaustion low is taking shape. PCE data next week could be the catalyst.

Gold closed lower for the second consecutive week on Friday, although it finished the week well off its lows after rebounding on Thursday and holding on to some of those gains during Friday’s consolidation.

Gold is poised to mark the largest weekly loss since March with XAU/USD now testing fresh yearly lows. Battle lines drawn on the technical charts.

In the week ahead, the macro calendar is light, but we have the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline looming, which could impact the near-term gold forecast depending on what happens.

Gold prices surged for a sixth-week with XAU/USD hitting fresh record highs. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart as the Trump tariffs stoke trade war fears.