James Stanley

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium has brought some large shockwaves to markets over the past 15 years but this is the first for new FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh.

BTC/USD put in a massive breakout last week and so far this week buyers have continued to bid pullbacks, keeping the door open for continuation until something changes.

Gold extended its breakout last week on the US Treasury buyback announcement and since, pullbacks have remained extremely shallow with another illustration this morning as buyers bid a quick test of the $4600 level.

The US Dollar has extended a series of lower-lows and highs and tomorrow brings the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of Core PCE. It still feels to be a USD/JPY market, but larger bullish themes have built in gold and BTC as a world fueled by debt doesn’t look to soon be turning towards austerity or fiscal prudence.

The dual intervention last month is fading as USD/JPY buyers get more and more aggressive, bidding dips at higher lows as we approach what could be a massive event at Jackson Hole.

USD/CAD was in a hard sell-off driving the pair into deep oversold conditions to finish last week. But an early-week bounce is squeezing shorts as a dual tariff announcement has unsettled the backing fundamentals in the pair.

Gold prices continued to jump last week and with the US Treasury playing defense in a debt spiral situation it seems unlikely that austerity and fiscal prudence will enter the equation.

The US Dollar set a fresh lower-low and then stalled as rate markets continue to harbor the expectation that the Fed will hike later this year. But if looking at this through USD/JPY, the matter gets a bit more complicated.

Bears have continued to sell rips in equities over the past week and despite being just 2% away from all-time-highs set last week, there’s apparent growing pessimism across the equity space.

The delayed fuse between BTC/USD and Gold was lit this week and BTC/USD is now working on its strongest week since last September with a current 14.2% gain.

It was a busy morning as a surprise announcement of increased Treasury buybacks sent yields down which had a reverberative effect across many macro markets, USD/JPY included.

It was a singular shock that drove a large move across a wide swath of markets this morning as the US Treasury took a step towards averting a debt spiral that had started to gain speed.