Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Ahead of Australia GDP

AUD/USD appears to be trading in a defined range after clearing the December high (0.6515).

Written by

David Song

Strategist

Tue, 03 Jun 2025, 07:10 PM

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

AUD/USD appears to be trading in a defined range after clearing the December high (0.6515), but Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the exchange rate as the update is anticipated to show a slowdown in economic activity.

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Ahead of Australia GDP

Keep in mind, AUD/USD registered a fresh yearly high (0.6537) in May following the V-shape recovery from earlier this year, and the exchange rate may attempt to retrace the decline from the November high (0.6688) should it break out of the range bound price action.

Australia Economic Calendar

However, Australia’s GDP report may sway AUD/USD as the economy is expected to grow 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the 0.6% expansion during the previous period, and signs of slowing activity may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further unwind its restrictive policy as ‘the Board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced.’

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

As a result, speculation for another RBA rate-cut may produce headwinds for the Australian Dollar, but a better-than-expected GDP report may keep AUD/USD above the weekly low (0.6432) as it encourages Governor Michele Bullock and Co. to carry out a gradual approach in unwinding its restrictive policy.

With that said, AUD/USD may continue to coil within a defined range should it defend the advance from the May low (0.6357), but the range bound price action may turn out to be temporary if it fails to retain the V-shape recovery from earlier this year.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

AUD/USD may continue to defend the V-shape recovery from April as it breached the December high (0.6515) during the previous month, and a move/close above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region may push the exchange rate toward 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension).
Next area of interest comes in around the November high (0.6688), but a close below 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) may lead to a test of the May low (0.6357).
Next area of interest comes in around 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with a break/close below the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6140 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region opening up the 0.5990 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6020 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone.